Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · May 21, 2024
Mosher names four breakout wide receiver candidates for 2024: Drake London, Khalil Shakir, Wan'Dale Robinson and Marvin Mims. They suggest London could see around 150 targets and lead the NFL in catches and yards, and that Mims could reach 1,000 receiving yards and become Denver's No. 1 receiver by season's end.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromIt won't be a shock to see him lead the NFL in catches and yards this season.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Predictions: Who Will Be This Year’s Breakout Wide Receivers?
- The original
- The copy as archived May 23, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidMay 21, 2024
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Malik Nabers to be 1st on the depth chart“rookie Malik Nabers gives the New York Giants a No. 1 receiver”
- 2Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards“It won't be a shock to see him lead the NFL in catches and yards this season.”
- 3Marvin Mims Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart“It wouldn't be a shock if he was Denver's No. 1 receiver by the end of the season.”
- 4Marvin Mims Jr. to record 1,000 receiving yards“If the Broncos get average play from Nix this season, Mims has a chance to be a 1,000-yard receiver in Payton's offense.”
- 5Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by receptions“It won't be a shock to see him lead the NFL in catches and yards this season.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers to be 1st on the depth chart1 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +16.67 | |
| Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #4 | 75 | 0 | +150 | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 3 | 83.33 | 100 | −33.33 | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. to record 1,000 receiving yards4 | Player Season Numbers | 503 | 0.6 | 51.47 | −101.75 | |
| Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by receptions5 | Positional Finishes | Finished #7 | 50 | 0 | +100 | |
| 5 calls · 2 hits · 2 close calls · 1 miss · all settled | 61.8 | 48.6 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls, 2 positional finishes and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 61.8 out of 100, against 48.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
1Depth Chart CallsMalik NabersNew York Giants
Malik Nabers to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by receptions100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Malik Nabers
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Positional FinishesDrake LondonAtlanta Falcons
Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by receiving yards
What happenedFinished #4called #1 · by receiving yards75Close · naive 075this call−0a naive guess=75better than naive×2difficulty=+150skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 150
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 30
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
3Depth Chart CallsMarvin Mims Jr.Denver Broncos
Marvin Mims Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 3called No. 1 · by receptions83.33Hit · naive 10083.33this call−100a naive guess=−16.67worse than naive×2difficulty=−33.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- DEN
- skill:
- −33.33
- player:
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Player Season NumbersMarvin Mims Jr.Denver Broncos
Marvin Mims Jr. to record 1,000 receiving yards
What happened503called 1,0000.6Miss · naive 51.470.6this call−51.47a naive guess=−50.87worse than naive×2difficulty=−101.75skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 380.95
- skill:
- −101.75
- what happened:
- 503
- player:
- Marvin Mims Jr.
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0.6
- baseline:
- 51.47
- they said:
- 1000
- statistic:
- receiving_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 377
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 384.91
- zero at percent out:
- 50
5Positional FinishesDrake LondonAtlanta Falcons
Drake London to finish top 1 at his position, by receptions
What happenedFinished #7called #1 · by receptions50Close · naive 050this call−0a naive guess=50better than naive×2difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- player:
- Drake London
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 30
- actual finish:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
61.8naive 48.6
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More depth chart calls
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