Comfortably Smug· Oct 26, 2022

Predicted Republicans win a Senate majority with 52 seats, picking up Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.

“I'm going with 52.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 8 out of 100, against 96 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressOct 26, 2022
“On the senate, will the Republicans take it? And if so, how many seats will they wind up with? ... I'm going with 52.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“I think they take, Nevada, and they take, Arizona. They take Georgia. That takes us 53.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Blake Masters
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsOct 26, 2022
“Well, Smug, what do you think? 52. I'm going with 52.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 80-40.8 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−40.8
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
80
they said:
52
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“I think they take, Nevada, and they take, Arizona. They take Georgia. That takes us 53.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“So on your 52, that would mean you think the Republicans are gonna keep Pennsylvania, I assume, and they're gonna gain where? I think they take, Nevada, and they take, Arizona. They take Georgia.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.