Isaac Saul· Oct 22, 2026
Saul walked through a live Senate map and predicted a historically good night for Democrats in 2026: Democratic wins in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan and Ohio, Republicans holding Kansas and (reluctantly) Texas, for a 52-48 Democratic Senate majority, plus a Democratic House.
“But that's a fifty two forty eight democratic majority in the senate.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Tangle (podcast) · read the original →
15 checkable claims — 11 race winners, 2 control of congress and 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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15 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“I think he's got... I think it's in the bag, dude.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“New Hampshire, honestly, I like John Sununu, and I could see a world where he pulls that out, but... I'm not screwing around here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“So, I'm gonna give it to Ken Paxton reluctantly because, I I don't feel confident about the pick... it's hard for me to imagine Texas flipping.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“Georgia where Jon Ossoff is basically wiping the floor with the competition, so that's blue.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“We're in a midterm race. Ohio's blue.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“I am gonna make that state blue. Mary Peltol is going to the senate in my view.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 22, 2026
“But that's a fifty two forty eight democratic majority in the senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“Kansas, I can't imagine a world where Kansas actually goes to anybody but Roger Marshall... So I'll give Republicans that.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“Ashley Hinson, not a bad candidate, not doing well in the polls, not Joni Ernst. I was going blue.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“She's not winning this race. I just don't see it. That's 50 right there.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 22, 2026
“The house feels like a slam dunk.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 22, 2026
“That's the senate majority for Democrats, 51 right there.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“So that is North Carolina where Republicans have stopped spending money. Okay? So that's blue.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“Minnesota, already blue, likely d.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 22, 2026
“But that's a fifty two forty eight democratic majority in the senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.