Lakshya Jain· Sep 7, 2024
Split Ticket's House model now makes Democrats 67% favorites to win the House majority, with ratings at 216 Democrats, 209 Republicans and 10 tossups and a median simulation of 221 Democrats to 214 Republicans. The update shifts 13 ratings toward Democrats, including Peltola in Alaska and McDonald Rivet in MI-08 moving to Leans Democratic, while several Republican-held seats move onto the board as Likely or Lean Republican.
“Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority , which is the highest it has been since its inception.”
published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →
18 checkable claims — 13 race winners, 4 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 18 have settled, averaging 82.2 out of 100, against 92.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
216They said
215What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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18 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seat CountsSep 7, 2024
“Our current House ratings stand at 216 Democrats, 209 Republicans, and 10 tossups.”
Hit · 95Scored 95a naive guess scored 90+5.4 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Democratic
- seats after:
- 215
- skill:
- 5.4
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 215
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- what they counted:
- seats held
- accuracy:
- 95
- baseline:
- 90
- they said:
- 216
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- seats before:
- 213
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 213
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“While GOP incumbents David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani are still favorites to win according to the model, their Democratic challengers Amish Shah and Kirsten Engel now have greater probabilities of victory.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-az-06
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- still favorites to win according to the model
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Juan Ciscomani
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 6
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Juan Ciscomani
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“going from Likely Republican to Lean Republican: ... VA-02 (held by Jen Kiggans)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-va-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Lean Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Jen Kiggans
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jen Kiggans
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“Two seats are leaving the tossup category and moving to Leans Democratic: AK-AL and MI-08. In Alaska, Mary Peltola remains favored to secure a second full term in the House in a rematch against Republican Nick Begich.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-house-ak-al
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Leans Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Nick Begich III
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Alaska's at-large district
- decided in the:
- ranked-choice
- they said:
- Mary Peltola
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“One seat is moving to Safe Democratic: NV-01. Democrat Dina Titus is not at serious risk of losing reelection”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-nv-01
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Safe Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Dina Titus
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Nevada's district 1
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Dina Titus
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“While GOP incumbents David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani are still favorites to win according to the model, their Democratic challengers Amish Shah and Kirsten Engel now have greater probabilities of victory.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-az-01
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- still favorites to win according to the model
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- David Schweikert
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 1
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- David Schweikert
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“Three other seats enter the realm of true competitiveness, going from Likely Republican to Lean Republican: FL-13 (held by Anna Paulina Luna)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-fl-13
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Lean Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Anna Paulina Luna
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Florida's district 13
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Anna Paulina Luna
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Seat CountsSep 7, 2024
“Our current House ratings stand at 216 Democrats, 209 Republicans, and 10 tossups.”
Close · 45Scored 45a naive guess scored 90-48.6 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 220
- skill:
- −48.6
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 220
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- what they counted:
- seats held
- accuracy:
- 45
- baseline:
- 90
- they said:
- 209
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- seats before:
- 222
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 222
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“moved onto the board as Likely Republican ... NY-02, held by Andrew Garbarino”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ny-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Likely Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Andrew Garbarino
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Andrew Garbarino
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Control of CongressSep 7, 2024
“Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority , which is the highest it has been since its inception. ... the Democrats are now modest, but clear favorites to flip the House in November.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-108 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- −108
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- a 67% chance of winning the majority
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Democratic
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“VA-05, an open seat likely to be won by Republican Delegate John McGuire”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-va-05
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Likely Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- John McGuire
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 5
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- John McGuire
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Seat CountsSep 7, 2024
“our model's median simulation places the chamber at 221 Democrats and 214 Republicans”
Close · 70Scored 70a naive guess scored 90-21.6 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 220
- skill:
- −21.6
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 220
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- what they counted:
- seats held
- accuracy:
- 70
- baseline:
- 90
- they said:
- 214
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- seats before:
- 222
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 222
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“Two districts are moving from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic: CA-47 and NH-01. ... As for NH-01, Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas continues to be the heavy favorite”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-nh-01
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Likely Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Chris Pappas
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 1
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Chris Pappas
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“In MI-08, a marginal Biden-won seat being vacated by Dan Kildee, the Democrats are now clearer favorites to win. Kristen McDonald Rivet is facing Paul Junge”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-mi-08
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Leans Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Kristen McDonald Rivet
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 8
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kristen McDonald Rivet
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“Two districts are moving from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic: CA-47 and NH-01. ... In CA-47, Democrat Dave Min remains a favorite against Republican Scott Baugh”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ca-47
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Likely Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Dave Min
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in California's district 47
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Dave Min
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Seat CountsSep 7, 2024
“our model's median simulation places the chamber at 221 Democrats and 214 Republicans”
Close · 70Scored 70a naive guess scored 90-21.6 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Democratic
- seats after:
- 215
- skill:
- −21.6
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 215
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- what they counted:
- seats held
- accuracy:
- 70
- baseline:
- 90
- they said:
- 221
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- seats before:
- 213
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 213
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“a few seats previously rated as Safe Republican have also now moved onto the board as Likely Republican ... IA-02, held by Rep. Ashley Hinson”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ia-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Likely Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Ashley Hinson
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ashley Hinson
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 7, 2024
“going from Likely Republican to Lean Republican: ... TX-15th (held by Monica de la Cruz)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-tx-15
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Lean Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Monica De La Cruz
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Texas's district 15
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Monica De La Cruz
- days before the vote when called:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.