Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Nov 14, 2025
Rosenthal made three against-the-spread picks — Dolphins over Commanders, Buccaneers over Bills outright, and Steelers to beat the Bengals by more than 5.5 — while also saying they have Seattle and Chicago winning straight up and endorsing the Ravens over the Browns.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Gregg Rosenthal said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think the Dolphins win going away.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Week 11 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidNov 14, 2025
- GradedAug 7–17, 2026
- 1Chicago Bears to beat Vikings“I have the Bears winning straight up to all three of us, do me? You and Patrick”
- 2Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Bengals“I take him to win by more than five and a half the Pittsburgh Steelers.”
- 3Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams“which is I have Seattle winning. Straight up.”
- 4Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Buffalo“Bucks plus six at Buffalo... both Patrick and I are taking the Bucks straight up.”
- 5Miami Dolphins to beat Washington Commanders“It is the Miami Dolphins... I think it's it's actually kind of a little bit of a mismatch this week. I think the Dolphins win going away.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears to beat Vikings1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +144 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Bengals2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams3 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 100 | −144 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Buffalo4 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 100 | −144 | |
| Miami Dolphins to beat Washington Commanders5 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 60 | 80 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksChicago Bears
Chicago Bears to beat Vikings
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.44difficulty=+144skillClosing line (Nov 16): Vikings by 3 · underdog pick, Bears 43%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 19-17
- skill:
- 144
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.44
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 8
2Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Bengals
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.44difficulty=0skillClosing line (Nov 16): Steelers by 5.5 · favorite pick, Steelers about 2 in 3 (69%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 12-34
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.44
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 8
3Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.44difficulty=−144skillClosing line (Nov 16): Rams by 3 · underdog pick, Seahawks 39%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 19-21
- skill:
- −144
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 1.44
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 8
4Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Buffalo
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.44difficulty=−144skillClosing line (Nov 16): Bills by 6 · underdog pick, Buccaneers 29%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 32-44
- skill:
- −144
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.44
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 8
5Game Outcome PicksMiami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins to beat Washington Commanders
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.44difficulty=0skillClosing line (Nov 16): Dolphins by 2.5 · favorite pick, Dolphins 57%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 13-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.44
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 8
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
60naive 80
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.