Jesse HolleySep 3, 2026

Jesse predicted the Cowboys finish 10-7 but still win the NFC East with 10 wins, picking Dallas over the Giants, Commanders, Texans, Buccaneers, Colts (loss), and losing to Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia twice, Arizona, Seattle and the Rams.

Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original

5 of 9calls landed5 hits · 4 misses · 6 waiting

55.6Average accuracyout of 100, across 9 calls

22.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

12Games calledeveryone’s picks below

6Waitingnot graded yet

What Jesse Holley said

I believe that the Cowboys are gonna win the division with 10 wins.

Jesse Holley, the lead quote

Where it was said: DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)
The episode: Cowboys Ace Their Tough Decisions, Record Predictions & More Defensive Optimism
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 3
PlayedSep 20–Nov 8
GradedSep 21–Nov 8

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Game Outcome Picks	5	4	4
Division Winners	0	0	1
Season Win Totals	0	0	1
All	5	4	6

How each call scored

15 checkable claims — 13 game outcome picks, 1 division winner and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

9 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 55.6 out of 100, against 22.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game Outcome Picks5 hits · 4 misses · 4 waitingShow ▸

Indianapolis Colts to beat Cowboys
“I'm done for the Cowboys. Taking the Colts.”
Indianapolis Colts
Cowboys 27–23Cowboys at Colts
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
27-23
skill:
0
they picked:
IND
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
IND
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Arizona Cardinals to beat Cowboys
“Until they do it, the Cowboys for me lose their third game in a row.”
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals 33–30Cardinals at Cowboys
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
won:
ARI
score:
33-30
skill:
200
they picked:
ARI
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Cowboys
“Yeah. I think, the Cowboys lose to the Eagles. Twice?”
Philadelphia Eagles
Cowboys 38–21Cowboys at Eagles
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
38-21
skill:
0
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Cowboys
“I have the Cowboys losing that second game in a row, losing to the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Philadelphia Eagles
Cowboys 38–21Cowboys at Eagles
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
38-21
skill:
0
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Green Bay Packers to beat Cowboys
“I think the Cowboys lose that game for the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau Field.”
Green Bay Packers
Packers 23–13Cowboys at Packers
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
won:
GB
score:
13-23
skill:
0
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
GB
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
“That's a win. That's a dub for the cowboys.”
Dallas Cowboys
Buccaneers 24–16Buccaneers at Cowboys
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
24-16
skill:
0
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to beat Texans
“And I think Brandon Aubrey heads down I 45 South, and he kicks the game winning field goal... where the Cowboys beat beat the Texans.”
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys 34–30Cowboys at Texans
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
34-30
skill:
200
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to beat Cowboys
“I think they lose in Rio to Baltimore.”
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens 34–31Ravens at Cowboys
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
won:
BAL
score:
34-31
skill:
200
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to beat commanders
“I think the Cowboys will open up a can of whoop whoop tail.”
Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys 37–20Commanders at Cowboys
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
20-37
skill:
0
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks to beat Cowboys
“Cowboys lose to Seahawks.”
Seattle Seahawks
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to beat Tennessee Titans
“I got them at Tennessee Titan. Right, Jesse? Yes.”
Dallas Cowboys
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to beat Cowboys
“Do they beat the Rams? No.”
Los Angeles Rams
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys to beat 40 niners
“I think the cowboys do finally get over the the the little brother, big brother thing with the 40 niners, and, that's a dub”
Dallas Cowboys
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Division Winners1 waitingShow ▸

Dallas Cowboys to win the division
“I believe that the Cowboys are gonna win the division with 10 wins.”
Dallas Cowboys
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Season Win Totals1 waitingShow ▸

Dallas Cowboys to finish with 10 wins
“You have ten and seven. Sound about right.”
Dallas Cowboys
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Anthony Richardson · Hit 100
Middlekoff's bold predictions, as relayed on the show, have the Patriots and Colts making the playoffs; they also argue the Colts whiffed on Anthony Richardson, comparing them to Trey Lance.
Jeremy Brener · Depth Chart Calls · Drew Lock · Hit 100
Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback.
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd predicts Matt Stafford stays with the Rams rather than moving on, and says Travis Hunter may underachieve because they're being asked to play both ways — Cowherd doubts they're a No. 1 receiver and would slot them as a No. 2 receiver while being a No. 1 corner.
Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Micah Parsons · Miss 0
Eisen expects Myles Garrett to be traded before the draft and says the Browns will then take Abdul Carter with their early first-round pick; they also predict Buffalo will end up paying James Cook and that Micah Parsons will remain a Cowboy and get their money from Dallas, likely late in the process.
Colin Cowherd · Trade and Signing Calls · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Cowherd believes Matt Stafford's public negotiation posturing means he ultimately stays in Los Angeles, and he flags Travis Hunter as a high draft pick who could underachieve because trying to play both cornerback and receiver full-time will hurt him.
Bill Huber · Game Outcome Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite their rib injury. They also sketch the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.