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AJ Hawk· Nov 6, 2026

Hawk said the Chiefs would beat the Jets, the Seahawks would beat the Cardinals, and the 49ers would beat the Raiders, even while taking the points with the underdogs in each case.

“I like the Chiefs to win here, but give me the Jets minus nine or plus nine and a half.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksNov 6, 2026

    Seattle Seahawks to beat Cardinals

    “I think Seahawks win, but I'm taking the Cardinals.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    3-17
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    10

    Closing line (Nov 8): Seahawks by 8.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 4 in 5 (79%).

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersNov 6, 2026

    San Francisco 49ers to beat Raiders

    “I do not like the niners on this one. I like them to win, but 10 points is a lot. Give me the Raiders.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    17-38
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    10

    Closing line (Nov 8): 49ers by 8.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 3 in 4 (77%).

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsNov 6, 2026

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Jets

    “I like the Chiefs to win here, but give me the Jets minus nine or plus nine and a half.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    12-35
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    10

    Closing line (Nov 8): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (80%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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