Guest host Seth Rollins named the Miami Dolphins their No. 1 sleeper team, saying they'll outperform expectations, finish ahead of the Jets and at least third in the AFC East, but won't win the division. They also predicted Myles Garrett will break their own single-season sack record given the Rams' elite offense.

4 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick, 1 positional finish, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.