JP Acosta#40 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 6, 2026

JP walked through the entire playoff bracket, taking the Patriots, Texans and Jaguars in the AFC wild card round, the Jaguars over the Texans in the AFC Championship, the Rams out of the NFC, and the Rams to beat the Jaguars in the Super Bowl.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast)Hear the original

6 of 14calls landed6 hits · 1 close call · 7 misses · all settled

51.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 14 calls

24.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

14 of 14Settlednone still waiting

#40JP Acosta’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What JP Acosta said

I think they are the most complete team in the NFL, and I think they're gonna win.

JP Acosta, the lead quote

Where it was said: Pushing the Pile (podcast)
The episode: NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions + Ranking Head Coach Openings + NEW 2026 Mock Draft!
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 6
GradedAug 13–Oct 11

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Game Outcome Picks	6	0	5
Conference Champions	0	1	1
Super Bowl Picks	0	0	1
All	6	1	7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

14 checkable claims — 11 game outcome picks, 2 conference champions and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 14 have settled, averaging 51.2 out of 100, against 24.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game Outcome Picks6 hits · 5 missesShow ▸

Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Texans
“And we run back Jags Texans three in the AFC championship... Screw it. Duval, baby. Jags Super Bowl.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
33.33Miss
33.33 − 22.92 naive = 10.41 × 1 difficulty = +10.41 skill
How this was scored
note:
these two did not meet in the postseason, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
skill:
10.41
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
ceiling:
66.67
accuracy:
33.33
baseline:
22.92
opponent:
HOU
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
weeks in the season:
18
right opponent:
no
weeks left when called:
0
picked won aplayoff game:
no
picked reached the playoffs:
yes
opponent reached the playoffs:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Patriots
“So now we move to divisional round. We have Texans, Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, And I'm gonna take the Jaguars.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
33.33Miss
33.33 − 22.92 naive = 10.41 × 1 difficulty = +10.41 skill
How this was scored
note:
these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
skill:
10.41
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
ceiling:
66.67
accuracy:
33.33
baseline:
22.92
opponent:
NE
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
weeks in the season:
18
right opponent:
no
weeks left when called:
0
picked won aplayoff game:
no
picked reached the playoffs:
yes
opponent reached the playoffs:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks
“I'm gonna go with the Rams in this in the third matchup because I just with Davante Adams back”
Los Angeles Rams
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1 difficulty = −100 skill
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
27-31
skill:
−100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
“I'm gonna go with the Bears beating the Packers mainly just because I just I really worry about the Packers' ability to get pass rush on Caleb Williams.”
Chicago Bears
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 10): Packers by 2.5 · underdog pick, Bears 45%.
How this was scored
won:
CHI
score:
27-31
skill:
0
they picked:
CHI
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to beat Panthers
“I do think the Rams sorta, pushed the Panthers around for sixty minutes.”
Los Angeles Rams
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Closing line (Jan 10): Rams by 10 · favorite pick, Rams about 4 in 5 (81%).
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
34-31
skill:
100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CAR
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans to beat Steelers
“I think the Texans sorta just push the Steelers around for sixty minutes... So I think the Texans win.”
Houston Texans
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Closing line (Jan 12): Texans by 3 · favorite pick, Texans 58%.
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
30-6
skill:
100
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PIT
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bills
“I'm gonna go with the Jaguars here... And I worry that without Ed Oliver, I don't think the Bills can really get pass rush.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Jaguars by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 47%, Jaguars 53%.
How this was scored
won:
BUF
score:
27-24
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
JAX
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans to beat Broncos
“I think with CJ Stroud playing, I think I'm gonna go with the Texans.”
Houston Texans
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
18-15
skill:
0
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Chicago Bears to beat Eagles
“I'm gonna go with the Bears beating the Eagles.”
Chicago Bears
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
won:
CHI
score:
24-15
skill:
100
they picked:
CHI
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
“So we got Ben Johnson, Vershawn McVay, NFC championship. I'm going with the Rams in this one”
Los Angeles Rams
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-17
skill:
100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
New England Patriots to beat Chargers
“I do think the Patriots end up beating the Chargers.”
New England Patriots
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Jan 11): Patriots by 3.5 · favorite pick, Patriots 64%.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
3-16
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?

Conference Champions1 close call · 1 missShow ▸

Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl
“and we get a rematch, Jags, Rams in the Super Bowl”
Los Angeles Rams
NE and SEA wonpicked LAR
50Close
50 − 0 naive = 50 × 1 difficulty = +50 skill
How this was scored
skill:
50
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars to reach the Super Bowl
“Duval, baby. Jags Super Bowl. Let's let's make it happen.”
Jacksonville Jaguars
NE and SEA wonpicked JAX
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?

Super Bowl Picks1 missShow ▸

Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl
“I think the Rams just I think they are the most complete team in the NFL, and I think they're gonna win. I think they should win the Super Bowl this year.”
Los Angeles Rams
SEA won itpicked LAR
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champion:
SEA
runner up:
NE
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?