JP Acosta· Jan 6, 2026
JP walked through the entire playoff bracket, taking the Patriots, Texans and Jaguars in the AFC wild card round, the Jaguars over the Texans in the AFC Championship, the Rams out of the NFC, and the Rams to beat the Jaguars in the Super Bowl.
“I think they are the most complete team in the NFL, and I think they're gonna win.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →
14 checkable claims — 11 game outcome picks, 2 conference champions and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
13 of 14 have settled so far, averaging 52.6 out of 100, against 24.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
14 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsJan 6, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Patriots
“So now we move to divisional round. We have Texans, Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, And I'm gonna take the Jaguars.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 22.92+10.41 skillHow this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 10.41
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 22.92
- opponent:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- picked won aplayoff game:
- no
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Seahawks
“I'm gonna go with the Rams in this in the third matchup because I just with Davante Adams back”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
“I'm gonna go with the Bears beating the Packers mainly just because I just I really worry about the Packers' ability to get pass rush on Caleb Williams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Panthers
“I do think the Rams sorta, pushed the Panthers around for sixty minutes.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Conference ChampionsLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl
“and we get a rematch, Jags, Rams in the Super Bowl”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 50
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
- Conference ChampionsJacksonville JaguarsJan 6, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to reach the Super Bowl
“Duval, baby. Jags Super Bowl. Let's let's make it happen.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansJan 6, 2026
Houston Texans to beat Steelers
“I think the Texans sorta just push the Steelers around for sixty minutes... So I think the Texans win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 30-6
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsJan 6, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Bills
“I'm gonna go with the Jaguars here... And I worry that without Ed Oliver, I don't think the Bills can really get pass rush.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 27-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansJan 6, 2026
Houston Texans to beat Broncos
“I think with CJ Stroud playing, I think I'm gonna go with the Texans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 18-15
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsJan 6, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat Eagles
“I'm gonna go with the Bears beating the Eagles.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 24-15
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
“So we got Ben Johnson, Vershawn McVay, NFC championship. I'm going with the Rams in this one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Super Bowl PicksLos Angeles RamsJan 6, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl
“I think the Rams just I think they are the most complete team in the NFL, and I think they're gonna win. I think they should win the Super Bowl this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsJan 6, 2026
New England Patriots to beat Chargers
“I do think the Patriots end up beating the Chargers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 3-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsJan 6, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Texans
“And we run back Jags Texans three in the AFC championship... Screw it. Duval, baby. Jags Super Bowl.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.