Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 16, 2024

Chris Brockman pitched Sam Darnold as Seattle's starting quarterback next season in place of Geno Smith, and said Quinn Ewers would not be a first-round quarterback if they declared now.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled

50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

70.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2 of 2Settlednone still waiting

#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Seahawks are gonna have a different starting quarterback next year.

Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 15: The Bills Are Your Super Bowl Favorites
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidDec 16, 2024
GradedAug 13, 2026

1Quinn Ewers to be picked “He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now” (picks 1–32)“He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now. Okay? He still has some eligibility left.”
2Sam Darnold to be 1st on the depth chart“Seahawks are gonna have a different starting quarterback next year... Sam Darnold? That that's kinda where I was pegging.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Quinn Ewers to be picked “He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now” (picks 1–32)¹	Mock Draft Picks	Went 231	0.02	50	—
Sam Darnold to be 1st on the depth chart²	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	91.67	+10.17
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled			50	70.8

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 70.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now (picks 1–32)They said

231What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Mock Draft Picks Quinn Ewers
Quinn Ewers to be picked “He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 231
0.02Miss · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Quinn Ewers
season:
2024
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
0.02
baseline:
50
actual pick:
231
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.02
predicted pick:
He's not gonna be a first round quarterback right now (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
2Depth Chart Calls Sam Darnold Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit · naive 91.67
100this call91.67a naive guess8.33better than naive1.22difficulty+10.17skill
How this was scored
club:
MIN
skill:
10.17
player:
Sam Darnold
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
1.22
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
4
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 70.8

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Jeremy Brener · Depth Chart Calls · Drew Lock · Hit 100
Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback.
Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Eisen expects Sam Darnold to remain in Minnesota rather than leave in free agency, and believes the Browns will trade Myles Garrett out of the conference, to an NFC team.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.
Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.
Dave Richard · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.

More depth chart calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.
Zachary Pereles · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
Pereles writes that if Deshaun Watson can't clear concussion protocol in time, the Browns would likely turn to second-year quarterback Shedeur Sanders to start Week 9 against the Saints.
Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.
Garrett Podell · Depth Chart Calls · Carson Beck · Miss 0
Podell argues the Cardinals have maxed out with Jacoby Brissett and that rookie Carson Beck should be ramped up to replace them as starter, targeting Week 8 at Dallas for Beck's regular-season debut.
Jacob Herlin · Depth Chart Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. They also expect Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter.
Donnie Druin · Depth Chart Calls · Jacoby Brissett · Hit 100
Following the Cardinals' decision not to make staff or lineup changes, Druin states that Jacoby Brissett will remain Arizona's starting quarterback for another week, with rookie Carson Beck staying behind them.