Chris Broussard#77 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 25, 2026
Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. They also restated their Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Broussard said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'm taking the chargers over the Buffalo Bills.
- Where it was said
- First Things First (podcast)
- The episode
- Falcons beat Packers, Chiefs ‘will blowout’ Dolphins, BUD List, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 25
- PlayedSep 27
- GradedSep 28
- 1Kansas City Chiefs to beat Dolphins“I think it's just gonna be a route. It's gonna be like that. What we saw last week with San Francisco.”
- 2New England Patriots to beat Jags“The Patriots beat the Jags. Let's go. That's a guarantee”
- 3Las Vegas Raiders to beat Saints“And then the second one, Hubs, you'll love this one. Raiders over the Saints.”
- 4Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers“Now I think they're gonna lose this game, but they cannot get blown out... I don't think Justin Herbert's gonna out outgun Josh Allen.”
- 5Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl“I told you guys couple weeks ago, it's cow it's cowboys versus Ravens in Super Bowl. What is it? 61?”
- 6Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl“it's cowboys versus Ravens in Super Bowl. What is it? 61?”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs to beat Dolphins1 | Game Outcome Picks | Chiefs 24–10 | 100 | 0 | +189 | |
| New England Patriots to beat Jags2 | Game Outcome Picks | Jaguars 35–6 | 0 | 100 | −189 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders to beat Saints3 | Game Outcome Picks | Raiders 35–27 | 100 | 0 | +189 | |
| Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers4 | Game Outcome Picks | Bills 24–16 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl5 | Conference Champions | — | — | — | — | |
| Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl6 | Conference Champions | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · 2 waiting | 75 | 50 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks and 2 conference champions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Dolphins
What happenedChiefs 24–10Chiefs at Dolphins100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.89difficulty=+189skillClosing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 5 in 6 (82%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 24-10
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- MIA
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
2Game Outcome PicksNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Jags
What happenedJaguars 35–6Patriots at Jaguars0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.89difficulty=−189skillClosing line (Sep 27): Jaguars by 3 · underdog pick, Patriots 41%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 6-35
- skill:
- −189
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
3Game Outcome PicksLas Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders to beat Saints
What happenedRaiders 35–27Raiders at Saints100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.89difficulty=+189skillClosing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5 · underdog pick, Raiders 37%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 35-27
- skill:
- 189
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
4Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers
What happenedBills 24–16Chargers at Bills100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.89difficulty=0skillClosing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (73%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 16-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
5Conference ChampionsDallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Conference ChampionsBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
75naive 50
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
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Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.