Nick BaumgardnerMar 31, 2025
The Athletic's draft analyst laid out a full slate of expectations for the upcoming NFL Draft: Abdul Carter to Tennessee at No. 1, Shedeur Sanders falling to the back half of the first or top of the second, Ashton Jeanty as a top-10 pick, Travis Hunter as the class's best player going in the top five, and only two quarterbacks plus fewer than three running backs but more than three receivers taken in Round 1.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Baumgardner said
My gut there says Abdul Carter, at one for Tennessee.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Nick Baumgardner: Shedeur is a Fringe First Round Pick
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 31, 2025
- GradedAug 13–Oct 1, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mock Draft Picks | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Position Order Calls | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How each call scored
9 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 80.8 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Mock Draft Picks5 hits · 1 miss · 2 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 1
“my gut there says Abdul Carter, at one for Tennessee, but, it wouldn't shock me if if they go quarterback.”
Went 3mocked at 191.7HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Abdul Carter
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Travis Hunter to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
“but, like, top five steal for this guy because he's he's probably the best player in the draft”
Went 2100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top five (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
“I think Genti is definitely a top 10 pick in this draft.”
Went 6100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “back half of the first round, top of the second round” (picks 1–64)
“To me, he's a back half of the first round, top of the second round, player.”
Went 1443.13MissThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 3.13
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 3.13
- predicted pick:
- back half of the first round, top of the second round (picks 1–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Omarion Hampton to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think Omarian Hampton from Carolina probably sneaks into the first round.”
Went 22100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
“I think he's absolutely a top 10 pick still or at least a top 10 player in this class, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was in the top 10.”
Went 8100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
TreVeyon Henderson to be picked “day two”
“Judkins and Trevion Henderson, I think, are day two guys.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Quinshon Judkins to be picked “day two”
“Judkins and Trevion Henderson, I think, are day two guys.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Position Order Calls1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Jalen Milroe to be 3rd quarterback off the board
“jump in there maybe at the bottom of the first or is or at least still be QB three, you know, that comes off the board after Choudhury”
70.71Close70.71 − 35 naive = 35.71 × 1 difficulty = +35.71 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 14 at random averages 35
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Jalen Milroe
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 35
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 4
- predicted order:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.Jesse Holley · Game Outcome Picks · Arizona Cardinals · Hit 100
Jesse predicted the Cowboys finish 10-7 but still win the NFC East with 10 wins, picking Dallas over the Giants, Commanders, Texans, Buccaneers, Colts (loss), and losing to Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia twice, Arizona, Seattle and the Rams.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.