Nick Baumgardner· Mar 31, 2025
The Athletic's draft analyst laid out a full slate of expectations for the upcoming NFL Draft: Abdul Carter to Tennessee at No. 1, Shedeur Sanders falling to the back half of the first or top of the second, Ashton Jeanty as a top-10 pick, Travis Hunter as the class's best player going in the top five, and only two quarterbacks plus fewer than three running backs but more than three receivers taken in Round 1.
“My gut there says Abdul Carter, at one for Tennessee.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 80.8 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 31, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “back half of the first round, top of the second round” (picks 1–64)
“To me, he's a back half of the first round, top of the second round, player.”
Miss · 3Scored 3.13a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 3.13
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 3.13
- predicted pick:
- back half of the first round, top of the second round (picks 1–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksAbdul CarterTennessee TitansMar 31, 2025
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 1
“my gut there says Abdul Carter, at one for Tennessee, but, it wouldn't shock me if if they go quarterback.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Abdul Carter
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksTravis HunterMar 31, 2025
Travis Hunter to be picked “top five” (picks 1–5)
“but, like, top five steal for this guy because he's he's probably the best player in the draft”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top five (picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksAshton JeantyMar 31, 2025
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
“I think Genti is definitely a top 10 pick in this draft.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ashton Jeanty
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksOmarion HamptonMar 31, 2025
Omarion Hampton to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think Omarian Hampton from Carolina probably sneaks into the first round.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Omarion Hampton
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsJalen MilroeMar 31, 2025
Jalen Milroe to be 3rd quarterback off the board
“jump in there maybe at the bottom of the first or is or at least still be QB three, you know, that comes off the board after Choudhury”
Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 35+35.71 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- naming one of the 14 at random averages 35
- skill:
- 35.71
- player:
- Jalen Milroe
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 35
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 14
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 4
- predicted order:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
“I think he's absolutely a top 10 pick still or at least a top 10 player in this class, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was in the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksTreVeyon HendersonMar 31, 2025
TreVeyon Henderson to be picked “day two”
“Judkins and Trevion Henderson, I think, are day two guys.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksQuinshon JudkinsMar 31, 2025
Quinshon Judkins to be picked “day two”
“Judkins and Trevion Henderson, I think, are day two guys.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
- Tyler SullivanScore Predictions · Tennessee TitansClose · 45Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 3 game, including a Bills blowout of the reeling Chargers, a Chiefs rout in Miami, a Seahawks win over a Mariota-led Washington, and the Saints beating the Raiders in their home opener. He also expects Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart all to be sidelined in Week 3, with Marcus Mariota starting for Washington.
- Lane MillsGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Mills predicts the Titans finish 2026 at 6-11 (2-4 in the AFC South), missing the playoffs, with specific wins over the Jets, Giants, Browns, Jaguars, Raiders and Colts, and names Wan'Dale Robinson team MVP with another 1,000-yard, seven-touchdown season as Cam Ward's top receiver.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100PFF's preseason usage recap makes a number of depth-chart and roster projections, including nine rookie receivers slotting as top-three options on their teams, sleeper tight end usage, and specific depth-chart placements for Cardinals, Falcons and Ravens players.
- Nathan JahnkeRoster Spot Calls · Devin DuvernayHit · 100An unsigned PFF preseason recap makes numerous depth-chart, roster and usage projections across the league, based on Week 3 preseason playing time — including Roman Wilson winning Pittsburgh's third receiver job, Luke McCaffrey's roster spot being in danger, Charlie Kolar as the Chargers' top tight end, and Kendre Miller as the Saints' RB2.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.