Walt· Oct 19, 2026
In a running series of coach/GM hiring and firing grades, Walt projects Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick of the Raiders in the 2026 draft and has LSU's Garrett Nussmeier going No. 2 overall in his 2026 mock draft.
“Garrett Nussmeier is currently the No. 2 pick in my 2026 NFL Mock Draft.”
published in writing · Walter Football · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where this call stands in the room
Fernando Mendoza · 2026 season · overall pick43 calls from 30 pundits between 1 overall pick and 1 overall pick. Walt said 1 overall pick. the room's median is 1 overall pick. what happened: 1 overall pick
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“the Raiders need to find a much younger, sharp, offensive-minded coach to take the team into their next era, which includes Fernando Mendoza as the presumed No. 1 overall pick (check out our 2026 NFL Mock Draft.)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
- Mock Draft PicksGarrett NussmeierOct 19, 2026
Garrett Nussmeier to be picked at number 2
“Doug Nussmeier's son, Garrett, is a potential top-10 draft choice... Garrett Nussmeier is currently the No. 2 pick in my 2026 NFL Mock Draft.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 50
- player:
- Garrett Nussmeier
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 249
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 100
What others said about the same people
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Ravens to beat the Bills in a shootout, 38-34, took the Raiders to upset the Jets, and said Detroit would beat the Vikings.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Rogers picked straight-up winners across the Week 8 slate, siding with the Bills over the Ravens, the Lions, Steelers, Jaguars, Bengals, Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Commanders and the Bears in Seattle.
- John BreechScore Predictions · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 95Breech's Week 8 score predictions include Bengals over Titans, Raiders over Jets, Rams over Chargers and Patriots over Dolphins.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Sullivan's Week 8 upset alert column flags five favorites he expects to lose: he picks the Falcons over the Buccaneers, the Raiders over the Jets, the undefeated Vikings over the Lions, the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson returning) over the Bills, and the Browns over the Steelers.
- Ezekiel TrezevantGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Trezevant argues that if the Raiders are as improved as they appeared at 3-0, they should beat the Jets in Week 8 on the road and end their four-game losing streak.
- Richard ShermanGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Sherman kept his top five unchanged in concept but shuffled it to 49ers, Bills, Vikings, Chiefs, Bears, and made Week 8 picks across the slate, including Seattle over Chicago 27-17 and a begrudging Lions pick over Minnesota.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris SimmsMock Draft Picks · Malachi CorleyMiss · 11Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; he also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.
- Todd McShayMock Draft Picks · Keelon RussellMiss · 0While breaking down LSU's offense, McShay called receiver Jackson Harris a top-50 NFL draft prospect, and later said LSU's Sam Levitt and Alabama's Keelan Russell are potential top-10 picks in a future draft.
- Philip HughesMock Draft Picks · Kyle KennardMiss · 34Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected him as a Day 2 selection.
- Blaine GrisakMock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr.Hit · 84Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of his own from the 2024 pre-draft period, he suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.
- Charlie CampbellMock Draft Picks · Xavier WilliamsMiss · 0Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if he declares.
- Charlie CampbellMock Draft Picks · Xavier WilliamsMiss · 0Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick.