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Blaine Grisak· Oct 22, 2026

Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of his own from the 2024 pre-draft period, he suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.

“Would not be shocked if Rams took BTJ at 19 as an Atwell replacement.”

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 84.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
19They said
23What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Brian Thomas Jr. to be picked at number 19

    “Would not be shocked if Rams took BTJ at 19 as an Atwell replacement. pic.twitter.com/fLcIbbZb4T — Blaine Grisak (@BGMediaOnSI) April 5, 2024”

    Hit · 84Scored 84.09a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2024
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Brian Thomas Jr.
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    84.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    23
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    84.09
    predicted pick:
    19
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    no two picks we can place at different pick numbers — no order to score

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