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Ty Schalter· Oct 4, 2026

Predicts a dominant Lions win, 34-13.

“Ty Schalter (3-0): Lions 34-13”

published in writing · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 14.3 out of 100, against 88.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Detroit Lions 34 — Panthers 13

    “Ty Schalter (3-0): Lions 34-13”

    Miss · 14Scored 14.29a naive guess scored 88.1-135.07 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    26-32
    skill:
    −135.07
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    14.29
    baseline:
    88.1
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    21

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