Rich Eisen· Dec 1, 2025
Eisen agreed the NFC West will send three teams to the playoffs (Seahawks, 49ers and Rams), endorsed the Bears finishing no worse than the No. 2 seed, and said Chicago would beat Green Bay at home.
“But I I think the West is getting three teams if that's what you're asking.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 1 game outcome pick and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 80 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsDec 1, 2025
Chicago Bears to beat Packers
“and I think they could beat the Packers at home for sure”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-133 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 21-28
- skill:
- -133
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldChicago BearsDec 1, 2025
Chicago Bears to take the top seed
“And I think that's no worse than the two seed there... So I I don't think that's an overreaction because they take the ball away and they're running it, and Caleb's not giving it away.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 133
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- host
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 2
- claimed tier:
- host
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ersDec 1, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“But I I think the West is getting three teams if that's what you're asking.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- skill:
- 133
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksSeattle SeahawksDec 1, 2025
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
“But I I think the West is getting three teams if that's what you're asking.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SEA
- skill:
- 133
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsDec 1, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“they're certainly not gonna be out of the playoffs... But I I think the West is getting three teams”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Brockman argued the Broncos are headed to the AFC Championship Game, that the Cowboys will win the NFC East, that Green Bay is the NFC's best team, and that the Bears will finish no worse than the No. 2 seed in the NFC.