Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 8, 2025
Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Brockman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromJosh Allen is still the most dangerous quarterback in the NFL, and the Bills are gonna win a playoff game.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 14: Chiefs & Ravens are Cooked, Colts' QB Plan, are Packers Class of NFC?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidDec 8, 2025
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Carolina Panthers to win the division“The NFC South is their division to lose.”
- 2Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl“They're gonna be playing in the AFC championship game.”
- 3Buffalo Bills to take the top seed“I think that whoever doesn't win the AFC East is gonna be the five seed, and I think they absolutely go into Pittsburgh or Baltimore and win that playoff game.”
- 4Green Bay Packers to win the division“The road to the Super Bowl and the NFC goes through Lambeau Field.”
- 5Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards“Josh Allen is still the most dangerous quarterback in the NFL”
- 6Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs“the Bills are gonna win a playoff game”
- 7Mac Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts“They should trade for Mac Jones this offseason.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 100 | 0 | +128 | |
| Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Buffalo Bills to take the top seed3 | Seeding, Byes and Home Field | — | 100 | 0 | +128 | |
| Green Bay Packers to win the division4 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards5 | Positional Finishes | Finished #11 | 16.67 | 75 | −74.67 | |
| Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs6 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Mac Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts7 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 3 hits · 3 misses · 1 waiting | 52.8 | 29.2 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 2 division winners, 1 conference champion, 1 playoff pick, 1 positional finish, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 52.8 out of 100, against 29.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersCarolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win the division
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.28difficulty=+128skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- yes
2Conference ChampionsHouston Texans
Houston Texans to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked HOU0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.28difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
3Seeding, Byes and Home FieldBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.28difficulty=+128skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- seeds 5–7 visit a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
- actual tier:
- visitor
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 5
- claimed tier:
- visitor
- weeks left when called:
- 5
4Division WinnersGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.28difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- no
5Positional FinishesJosh AllenBuffalo Bills
Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #11called #1 · by passing yards16.67Miss · naive 7516.67this call−75a naive guess=−58.33worse than naive×1.28difficulty=−74.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −74.67
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 14
- actual finish:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- predicted finish:
- 1
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.28difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 5
7Trade and Signing CallsMac JonesIndianapolis Colts
Mac Jones to move to Indianapolis Colts
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
52.8naive 29.2
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · New York Giants · Miss 0
Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. They also expect Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and they float the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Los Angeles Chargers · Miss 0
Cowherd unveiled their top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. They also name the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.