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Jeremy WhiteOct 1, 2026

White expects the Chiefs to beat the Raiders, pointing toward a Bills-Chiefs race among the AFC's unbeaten teams, and named Bengals-Jaguars as the key game to watch for the No. 1 seed.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Bills (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Chiefs 30–27What happenedChiefs at Raiders
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+183Skillafter difficulty

What Jeremy White said

But I Chiefs are gonna win
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders
Where it was said
Locked On Bills (podcast)
The episode
BILLS SQUAD SHOW: BREAKOUT - GREG ROUSSEAU'S EMERGENCE has Bills in AFC Driver's seat; Josh v. Drake
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidOct 1
  2. PlayedOct 4
  3. GradedOct 5

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders

    What happenedChiefs 30–27Chiefs at Raiders
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 2 in 3 (66%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    30-27
    skill:
    183
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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