Matt HarmonOct 1, 2026

Harmon picked the Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, Lions and Packers to win their Week 4 games, said Jacksonville would at least keep it close against Cincinnati, and predicted Parker Washington goes for 150-plus receiving yards against the Bengals.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)Hear the original

4 of 5calls landed4 hits · 1 miss · all settled

80Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

40A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5Games calledeveryone’s picks below

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Matt Harmon said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Parker Washington goes for a 150 plus yards, against Cincinnati Bengals.

Matt Harmon, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 4 preview & bold predictions: can Raiders get to 4-0? Packers-Bucs loser leaves town
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 1
PlayedOct 4
GradedOct 5

1Green Bay Packers to beat Bucks“I guess I have to pick the Packers on this one just because I do think I know, like, I know their quarterback can beat this secondary.”
2Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders“Yeah. I mean, I'll go Chiefs. It's a little bit of a see it to believe it type thing”
3Los Angeles Rams to beat Eagles“Yeah. I think I think the Rams are a better team right now. And I know they're one and two”
4Detroit Lions to beat Panthers“Yeah. Panthers just too beat up. I'll take the lines.”
5San Francisco 49ers to beat Broncos“Yeah. I'll go Niners here. I felt like I had a much clearer picture on how that offense can attack this defense”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Green Bay Packers to beat Bucks¹	Game Outcome Picks	Packers 17–14	100	0	+183
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders²	Game Outcome Picks	Chiefs 30–27	100	0	+183
Los Angeles Rams to beat Eagles³	Game Outcome Picks	Rams 24–20	100	0	+183
Detroit Lions to beat Panthers⁴	Game Outcome Picks	Panthers 32–26	0	100	−183
San Francisco 49ers to beat Broncos⁵	Game Outcome Picks	49ers 24–14	100	100	0
5 calls · 4 hits · 1 miss · all settled			80	40

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 80 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to beat Bucks
What happenedPackers 17–14Packers at Buccaneers
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Packers by 3 · favorite pick, Packers 58%.
How this was scored
won:
GB
score:
17-14
skill:
183
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders
What happenedChiefs 30–27Chiefs at Raiders
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 2 in 3 (66%).
How this was scored
won:
KC
score:
30-27
skill:
183
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LV
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to beat Eagles
What happenedRams 24–20Rams at Eagles
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Rams by 3.5 · favorite pick, Rams 64%.
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
24-20
skill:
183
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
4Game Outcome Picks Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Panthers
What happenedPanthers 32–26Lions at Panthers
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.83difficulty−183skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Lions by 4.5 · favorite pick, Lions about 2 in 3 (66%).
How this was scored
won:
CAR
score:
26-32
skill:
−183
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
CAR
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers to beat Broncos
What happened49ers 24–14Broncos at 49ers
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.83difficulty0skill
Closing line (Oct 4): 49ers by 3 · favorite pick, 49ers 60%.
How this was scored
won:
SF
score:
14-24
skill:
0
they picked:
SF
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SF
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
80naive 40

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Parker Hurley · Roster Spot Calls · Khalid Kareem · Miss 0
Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut.
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.
Andrew Erickson · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent.
Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.