Dan Pizzuta· Sep 10, 2020
Pizzuta predicts each division's order of finish, names playoff/wild card teams, and picks the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl.
“Baltimore Ravens over Dallas Cowboys”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Sep 23, 2020) → · live page
25 checkable claims — 14 playoff picks, 8 division winners, 2 conference champions and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 25 have settled, averaging 52 out of 100, against 36 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
25 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersNew Orleans SaintsSep 10, 2020
New Orleans Saints to win the division
“NFC South: New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers*, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersSeattle SeahawksSep 10, 2020
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“NFC West: Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams*, San Francisco 49ers*, Arizona Cardinals”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersNew England PatriotsSep 10, 2020
New England Patriots to win the division
“AFC East: New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills*, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensSep 10, 2020
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns*, Pittsburgh Steelers*, Cincinnati Bengals”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- no
- Conference ChampionsBaltimore RavensSep 10, 2020
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“Super Bowl pick: Baltimore Ravens over Dallas Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- TB,KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Conference ChampionsDallas CowboysSep 10, 2020
Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl
“Super Bowl pick: Baltimore Ravens over Dallas Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- TB,KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersKansas City ChiefsSep 10, 2020
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
“AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersIndianapolis ColtsSep 10, 2020
Indianapolis Colts to win the division
“AFC South: Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersDetroit LionsSep 10, 2020
Detroit Lions to win the division
“NFC North: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersDallas CowboysSep 10, 2020
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
“NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Football Team, New York Giants”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- won the division:
- no
- Playoff PicksNew Orleans SaintsSep 10, 2020
New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs
“NFC South: New Orleans Saints (predicted division winner)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsSep 10, 2020
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“Los Angeles Rams* (Wild Card)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksIndianapolis ColtsSep 10, 2020
Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs
“AFC South: Indianapolis Colts (predicted division winner)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- IND
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsSep 10, 2020
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“AFC East: New England Patriots (predicted division winner)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksBaltimore RavensSep 10, 2020
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (predicted division winner)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Super Bowl PicksBaltimore RavensSep 10, 2020
Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl
“Super Bowl pick: Baltimore Ravens over Dallas Cowboys”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- TB
- runner up:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksDetroit LionsSep 10, 2020
Detroit Lions to make the playoffs
“NFC North: Detroit Lions (predicted division winner)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DET
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksDallas CowboysSep 10, 2020
Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs
“NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (predicted division winner)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 10, 2020
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (predicted division winner)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- KC
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 10, 2020
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers* (Wild Card)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksSeattle SeahawksSep 10, 2020
Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs
“NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (predicted division winner)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SEA
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 10, 2020
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“San Francisco 49ers* (Wild Card)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksBuffalo BillsSep 10, 2020
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“Buffalo Bills* (Wild Card teams are noted with an asterisk)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- BUF
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersSep 10, 2020
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“Pittsburgh Steelers* (Wild Card)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Playoff PicksCleveland BrownsSep 10, 2020
Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs
“Cleveland Browns* (Wild Card)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CLE
- skill:
- 200
- season:
- 2020
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 17
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 17
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Brockman argued the Broncos are headed to the AFC Championship Game, that the Cowboys will win the NFC East, that Green Bay is the NFC's best team, and that the Bears will finish no worse than the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Eisen gave his Week 13 power rankings, with the Rams first, Patriots second and the Cowboys entering at No. 10, and also named New England and Philadelphia as the first teams to clinch playoff spots, picked Seattle to beat Minnesota, and tabbed Drake Maye as an MVP finalist and Mike Vrabel as Coach of the Year.