Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 22, 2025
Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Rich Eisen said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromBut the Packers are just not missing the playoffs.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 16: Bears = Team of Destiny, Jags Prove It, Burrow's Future & More
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidDec 22, 2025
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl“So I I can't push back on this that they're a team of destiny and they're winning the NFC.”
- 2Trevor Lawrence to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards“And Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top five quarterback. He is elusive.”
- 3Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs“I I don't think they're gonna lose to the Ravens at home. I think the Ravens are gonna be out, and I think the Packers make the playoffs.”
- 4Green Bay Packers to beat Ravens“They've got the Ravens in their house next... I I don't think they're gonna lose to the Ravens at home.”
- 5Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs“But all that said, you know, the Steelers should make the playoffs. They should, if they do, host a playoff game.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trevor Lawrence to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #6 | 91.67 | 0 | +107.25 | |
| Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Green Bay Packers to beat Ravens4 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs5 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 58.3 | 40 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 58.3 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsChicago Bears
Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked CHI0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.17difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
2Positional FinishesTrevor LawrenceJacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #6called #5 · by passing yards91.67Hit · naive 091.67this call−0a naive guess=91.67better than naive×1.17difficulty=+107.25skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 107.25
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 29
- actual finish:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- predicted finish:
- 5
3Playoff PicksGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.17difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 3
4Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to beat Ravens
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.17difficulty=0skillClosing line (Dec 27): Packers by 2.5 · favorite pick, Packers 56%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
5Playoff PicksPittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.17difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
58.3naive 40
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.Bryan DeArdo · Trade and Signing Calls · Joey Porter Jr. · Miss 0
The piece predicts Joey Porter Jr. most likely stays with the Steelers through 2026, while listing possible trade destinations if they were moved.Bill Huber · Game Outcome Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite their rib injury. They also sketch the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.Bryan DeArdo · Score Predictions · Chicago Bears · Hit 98
DeArdo picks the Bears to beat the Buccaneers on Sunday night in a defensive game, predicting a 20-16 final score.Derek Brown · Game Outcome Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Brown picked the Bengals to beat the Falcons in Madrid, the Packers to win outright in New England and the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night. They were bullish on Jonah Coleman's rest-of-season value, expected Jonathan Taylor to play for the Colts, floated a Breece Hall trade, and did not expect DJ Reed to play in Week 9.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.