Rich Eisen· Dec 22, 2025
Eisen agreed the Bears are a team of destiny who will win the NFC, insisted the Packers will make the playoffs and won't lose at home to the Ravens, said the Steelers should make the playoffs, and endorsed the view that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
“But the Packers are just not missing the playoffs.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 58.3 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsChicago BearsDec 22, 2025
Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl
“So I I can't push back on this that they're a team of destiny and they're winning the NFC.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
Trevor Lawrence to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards
“And Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top five quarterback. He is elusive.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 0+107.25 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 107.25
- player:
- Trevor Lawrence
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 29
- actual finish:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- predicted finish:
- 5
- Playoff PicksGreen Bay PackersDec 22, 2025
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“I I don't think they're gonna lose to the Ravens at home. I think the Ravens are gonna be out, and I think the Packers make the playoffs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersDec 22, 2025
Green Bay Packers to beat Ravens
“They've got the Ravens in their house next... I I don't think they're gonna lose to the Ravens at home.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BAL
- score:
- 41-24
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- Playoff PicksPittsburgh SteelersDec 22, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“But all that said, you know, the Steelers should make the playoffs. They should, if they do, host a playoff game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 3
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Brockman argued the Texans will reach the AFC Championship Game, declared the Chiefs dynasty over, said the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC goes through Lambeau Field, that Josh Allen is still the most dangerous QB and the Bills will win a playoff game (with the AFC East runner-up as the 5 seed winning in Pittsburgh or Baltimore), that Carolina will win the NFC South, that Baltimore finishes under .500 with Lamar no longer a top-five QB, that the Colts should trade for Mac Jones, and that Marcus Freeman will be in the NFL next year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Brockman argued the Broncos are headed to the AFC Championship Game, that the Cowboys will win the NFC East, that Green Bay is the NFC's best team, and that the Bears will finish no worse than the No. 2 seed in the NFC.