Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 3, 2025

Eisen predicts Tampa Bay handles an injury-depleted Saints team with Mike Evans reaching 1,000 receiving yards, Carson Wentz and the Chiefs upsetting the Broncos, New England beating Buffalo and then picking second or third and landing Travis Hunter, and Kenneth Gainwell rushing for 101 yards against the Giants.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting

59.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

83.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 7Settled2 still waiting

#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think Mike Evans is gonna get his thousand yard season because Baker is going to manifest it.

Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
The episode: Top 5 NFL Week 18 Matchups
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 3, 2025
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

1Kansas City Chiefs to beat Broncos“What's more likely, Super Bowl champion backup quarterback to get an upset win? Carson Wentz or Jimmy Garoppolo? ... I'm gonna go Carson Wentz. ... And Carson Wentz is gonna use this as an opportunity to just knock the Broncos out of the playoffs”
2Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans Saints“And, and Spencer Rattler or whomever is gonna be out there for a lot of injured saints, are gonna have a long day, and the Falcons need a miracle on that front in order to make it.”
3New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills“And it's gonna be Jeracke Maier versus, Mitchell Trubisky. And I think you win this game, pal. ... No. Not when they beat the Bills.”
4Mike Evans to record 1,000 receiving yards“And I think the Bucks, with Baker are a, are a focused bunch, and I think Mike Evans is gonna get his thousand yard season because Baker is going to manifest it.”
5Kenny Gainwell to record 101 rushing yards“And so I think Kenneth Gainwell might have a 101 yards. I'll I'll even call my shot. Oh. Kenneth Gainwell will gain well. 101 yards.”
6Travis Hunter to be picked “two or three”“And I think the the Patriots are gonna choose two or three, and you're still gonna get Travis Hunter anyway, and you'll be a very happy camper.”
7New England Patriots to pick “two or three”“And I think the the Patriots are gonna choose two or three, and you're still gonna get Travis Hunter anyway”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Broncos¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−106
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans Saints²	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills³	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Mike Evans to record 1,000 receiving yards⁴	Player Season Numbers	1,004	99.2	63.34	+38.02
Kenny Gainwell to record 101 rushing yards⁵	Player Season Numbers	290	0	53.72	−56.94
Travis Hunter to be picked “two or three”⁶	Mock Draft Picks	—	—	—	—
New England Patriots to pick “two or three”⁷	Team Draft Slot Calls	—	—	—	—
7 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting			59.8	83.4

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 2 player season numbers, 1 mock draft pick and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 59.8 out of 100, against 83.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Broncos
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.06difficulty−106skill
Closing line (Jan 5): Broncos by 10.5 · underdog pick, Chiefs about 1 in 5 (20%).
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
0-38
skill:
−106
they picked:
KC
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat New Orleans Saints
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.06difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 5): Buccaneers by 14.5 · favorite pick, Buccaneers about 7 in 8 (88%).
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
19-27
skill:
0
they picked:
TB
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks New England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Buffalo Bills
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.06difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 5): Bills by 3 · underdog pick, Patriots 40%.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
16-23
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1.06
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
Think this is wrong?
4Player Season Numbers Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans to record 1,000 receiving yards
What happened1,004called 1,000
99.2Hit · naive 63.34
99.2this call63.34a naive guess35.86better than naive1.06difficulty+38.02skill
How this was scored
naive:
819.95
skill:
38.02
what happened:
1004
player:
Mike Evans
season:
2024
accuracy:
99.2
baseline:
63.34
they said:
1000
statistic:
receiving_yards
difficulty:
1.06
last season:
1255
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
position average:
384.91
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
5Player Season Numbers Kenny Gainwell Philadelphia Eagles
Kenny Gainwell to record 101 rushing yards
What happened290called 101
0Miss · naive 53.72
0this call53.72a naive guess−53.72worse than naive1.06difficulty−56.94skill
How this was scored
naive:
377.32
skill:
−56.94
what happened:
290
player:
Kenny Gainwell
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
53.72
they said:
101
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
1.06
last season:
364
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
1
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
6Mock Draft Picks Travis Hunter New England Patriots
Travis Hunter to be picked “two or three”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
7Team Draft Slot Calls New England Patriots
New England Patriots to pick “two or three”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
59.8naive 83.4

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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