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A limited sample — under 30 graded articles.
99.42% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
hits
misses
Takes in each band
Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
Teams and players where FantasyPros’s writers keep landing outside the room: at least twice, a call published under this banner sat beyond every other pundit who made a comparable one — higher or lower than all of them, in a room of at least five voices. The bar is the banner’s standing lean (+100 would be the most bullish voice in every room), and the accuracy covers just those out-on-a-limb calls, once they settle. Computed, never chosen.
Outside the room in 13 of 15 articles (1 higher, 12 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 12 of 16 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
651–675 of 2,307
22 / 2,307
graded
2,285 still pending
Outside the room in 10 of 12 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 10 of 19 articles (1 higher, 9 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 9 of 10 articles (2 higher, 7 lower) · the strays aren’t settled yet
Outside the room in 9 of 17 articles — always lower · the strays aren’t settled yet
Ashton Jeanty to fall short of his draft cost (the back end of the first round)
“Ashton Jeanty will be the biggest bust of the season. Jeanty has been regularly going at the back end of the first round in drafts, and that’s far too early... Jeanty is a third-round pick in fantasy drafts.”
Ashton JeantyLas Vegas Raiders
Malik Nabers to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 28.3 | WR12)
“Malik Nabers is coming off of two surgeries to repair his torn ACL... Bust” / “currently coming off the board at 29th overall (WR12), and that simply is way too hefty of a price”
Brock Bowers to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 22 | TE1)
“Brock Bowers is my biggest bust candidate of the four, mostly because of the price.”
Jaxson Dart to fall short of his draft cost (around QB11)
“I have Dart down at QB15, and if those rushing touchdowns come back to earth, I think he has a tough time paying off a borderline QB1 price.”
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 12 | RB7)
“De’Von Achane is my pick to be one of the biggest fantasy busts this season because his current draft cost assumes he can maintain nearly all of the production that made him elite in previous years.”
Drake Maye to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 51.7 | QB3)
“I expect Drake Maye to be the biggest fantasy bust this season... he will not return that value where he is being drafted.”
Drake MayeNew England Patriots
Courtland Sutton to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 88.7 | WR37)
“Courtland Sutton is primed to be one of this year’s biggest fantasy busts as his target share collapses in a suddenly crowded Denver Broncos offense.”
Courtland SuttonDenver Broncos
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (first-round cost)
“McCaffrey can still be great, but the age, current physical concerns, and first-round cost create too many ways for the investment to disappoint.”
Christian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey to outplay his draft cost (1.03)
I'm not passing on a player with this much league-winning upside because I am scared of what might happen. McCaffrey should be the 1.03, only behind Gibbs and Bijan.
Christian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (RB11 at the back end of the second round)
If Walker can eat into some of that work while also seeing the expected RB1 usage on the ground, he will end up being a league winner. He is currently being taken as the RB11 at the back end of the second round.
Kenneth Walker IIIKansas City Chiefs
Omarion Hampton to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
Worst-case scenario, he is a top-12 running back due to a split in the backfield.
Omarion HamptonLos Angeles Chargers
De'Zhaun Stribling to outplay his draft cost (a very late-round wide receiver dart throw)
as a very late-round wide receiver dart throw, he makes sense as a potential league winner with the opportunity to significantly outperform his ADP
De'Zhaun StriblingSan Francisco 49ers
Kenneth Walker III to record 10 rushing tds
Ten touchdowns for Walker seems like the absolute worst-case scenario.
Kenneth Walker IIIKansas City Chiefs
Jonathon Brooks to be 1st on the depth chart
Jonathon Brooks legitimately has the potential to be a three-down back in a run-focused offense come Week 1.
Jonathon BrooksCarolina Panthers
David Montgomery to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
he could be the life jacket that saves your team as a top-12 running back finisher
David MontgomeryHouston Texans
Tee Higgins to outplay his draft cost (drafted like a late value WR2)
Higgins is undoubtedly a WR1 being drafted like a late value WR2.
David Montgomery to outplay his draft cost (the middle rounds)
At his cost in the middle rounds, Montgomery has the potential to win your league.
David MontgomeryHouston Texans
These two should be the 1.01 and 1.02 in standard, half-PPR, and PPR drafts. Every single time... McCaffrey should be the 1.03, only behind Gibbs and Bijan.
Malik Nabers to outplay his draft cost (the third and sometimes fourth round; outside the top-10 wide receivers)
Not only does he bring league-winning potential, but you can get him at a discount with a very favorable playoff schedule.
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 45.8 | RB20)
Bucky Irving (TB) – ADP 45.8 | RB20 ... The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell to a significant contract in free agency, calling the veteran a co-starter during training camp, showing their lack of trust in Irving as a featured running back.
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 5.8 | RB3)
Christian McCaffrey (SF) – ADP 5.8 | RB3 ... the superstar turned 30 this offseason and is a ticking time bomb because of his age and injury history.
TreVeyon Henderson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 59.8 | RB25)
TreVeyon Henderson (NE) – ADP 59.8 | RB25 ... Neither New England running back should get drafted in the top 72 picks.
Cam Skattebo to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 39.4 | RB19)
Cam Skattebo (NYG) – ADP 39.4 | RB19 ... the Giants have done everything possible to crush his fantasy value ... I'm not drafting anyone in this backfield.
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 10.8 | RB6)
De'Von Achane (MIA) – ADP 10.8 | RB6 ... I won't draft him as a mid-range RB1 and would like to avoid picking Achane altogether with Malik Willis under center.
Jeremiyah Love to be 1st on the depth chart
Jeremiyah Love , up into the mid-second round as Arizona's projected lead back
Jeremiyah LoveArizona Cardinals