Seats Most Likely to Flip
Scored under the published methodology, which sets out what counts as right, what a naive guess would have said, and why an earlier call is worth more than a late one.
- Takes logged
- 2
- Graded
- 1
- Average accuracy
- 89.7
- Pundits
- 2
50% settled
out of 100
have made one
How these calls land
Takes in each band
Settled or waiting
1 / 2
graded
1 still pending
By season
- 20241 of 1 graded
- 20260 of 1 graded
Who is good at seats most likely to flip
- Kirk Bado90 accuracy · 1 graded+39.7
provisionalRatings this early are samples, not reputations — the methodology sets out how many articles it takes before we call one settled.
By publisher
- The Inside Elections Podcast89.7 · 1 graded
Every seats most likely to flip take
1–2 of 2
- PendingChuck ToddSeats Most Likely to Flip2026 season
But to say doubt is creeping in my head more and more, I believe Kansas is more likely to flip now than Iowa.
Waiting on the season to settle this.said Sep 21, 2026 we do the top 10 most likely to flip. West Virginia was the wire to wire, number one spot there. Montana, number two the whole time, and Ohio, three... Nebraska did make an appearance on the back end of our list at 10. Texas moved up a single spot, to nine.
By topic
US Elections — seats most likely to flip (1 graded)
Topics we cover today: NFL, US Elections. Every kind of prediction belongs to one of them; this page sits above the topic so that adding another does not mean rewriting every link.