Kirk Bado· Nov 1, 2024

Bado presented National Journal's ranking of Senate seats most likely to flip (West Virginia first, Montana second, Ohio third, Texas ninth, Nebraska tenth), said Democrats' late money in Texas is likely too little too late to flip that seat, and maintained the presidential race is still Trump's to lose.

“I think it might be a little bit too little too late here to really push that across the line.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections Podcast · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 seats most likely to flip — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 96.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“They've raised a lot of money. You see a last minute investment coming in from national groups here right now, but I think it might be a little bit too little too late here to really push that across the line.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
too little too late here to really push that across the line
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I still think that given the general attitude towards folks right now that, toward the the direction of the country, still feelings about the economy... that it's still Trump's race to lose”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
it's still Trump's race to lose
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seats Most Likely to FlipNov 1, 2024
“we do the top 10 most likely to flip. West Virginia was the wire to wire, number one spot there. Montana, number two the whole time, and Ohio, three... Nebraska did make an appearance on the back end of our list at 10. Texas moved up a single spot, to nine.”
Hit · 90Scored 89.67a naive guess scored 50+39.67 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
skill:
39.67
topic:
elections
seats listed:
5
entries:
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
accuracy:
89.67
baseline:
50
seats we could not place:
0
of the seats listed flipped:
3
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
a knows-nothing list, as rankings are graded
Election Day:
2024-11-05
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.