Chuck Todd#2 of 21 election pundits · Oct 14, 2026
Todd ranks the ten governorships most likely to flip, with Iowa first and Florida tenth, and calls Iowa a lean Democratic flip and Kansas a lean Republican flip. They also see Democrats favored for governor in Alaska, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, thinks the Democrat wins the Kansas Senate race, believes the Georgia Republican nominee is the better bet, and expects South Carolina's 1st and Virginia's 5th House districts to stay Republican.
Said on air or in an interview · The Chuck ToddCastHear the original
What Chuck Todd said
I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican.
- Where it was said
- The Chuck ToddCast
- The episode
- Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans In Triage Mode As The Map Gets Worse + Elon’s Insane Campaign Spending
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 14
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race Winners | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Seats Most Likely to Flip | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
How each call scored
11 checkable claims — 10 race winners and 1 seats most likely to flip — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
8 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 75 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Race Winners6 hits · 2 misses · 2 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Hamilton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
“I'm bullish on Kansas Senate because I'm bearish on Kansas Gov for Democrats... I think Marshall's unlikable enough and Hamilton's likable enough to be the comfortable lone Democrat.”
Adam Hamilton woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.03 difficulty = +103 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-ks
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 103
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Adam Hamilton
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Adam Hamilton
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Rick Jackson to win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election
“I think the Republican nominee, Rick Jackson, has got enough distance from Trump and an enormous amount of money himself that has made him a better bet... I think had literally Republicans ended up with any other nominee than him, I think Keisha Lance Bottoms would be the favorite.”
Keisha Lance Bottoms woncalled Rick Jackson0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-governor-ga
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- a better bet
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Keisha Lance Bottoms
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Rick Jackson
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Democratic to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
“I think both Iowa and Kansas, you would say, distinctly leans to the party to flip, leaning Democratic on the Iowa side, leaning Republican on the Kansas side.”
Rob Sand woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.03 difficulty = +103 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-ia
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 103
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- leaning Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Rob Sand
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Rob Sand
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
“Now, there's two states not on my list. Arizona and Michigan... And while Turning Point is throwing a bunch of money into Andy Biggs in Arizona, the word is out that he's a MAGA guy. And MAGA people don't win statewide in Arizona these days.”
Katie Hobbs woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-az
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Katie Hobbs
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Katie Hobbs
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. House election in South Carolina's district 1
“I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican.”
Nancy Lacore woncalled Jenny Costa Honeycutt0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-house-sc-01
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Nancy Lacore
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in South Carolina's district 1
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jenny Costa Honeycutt
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 5
“I think Virginia five probably stays Republican.”
John McGuire woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-house-va-05
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- John McGuire
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 5
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- John McGuire
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Democrats to win the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election
“I think in a battleground state in this environment, advantage Democrats, whether it's Michigan governor, whether it's Wisconsin governor”
Jocelyn Benson woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-mi
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- advantage Democrats
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Jocelyn Benson
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jocelyn Benson
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
“I think in a battleground state in this environment, advantage Democrats, whether it's Michigan governor, whether it's Wisconsin governor... I don't think Tom Tiffany is unique enough to carve out his own identity to overcome what I think is just an environment that is not overcomable for Republicans right now in the Midwest.”
David Crowley woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-governor-wi
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- advantage Democrats
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- David Crowley
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- David Crowley
- days before the vote when called:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election
“Number four on the list is Alaska, the right choice voting. It does appear that the Democrats have the upper hand here.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Republican to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election
“I do think Kansas is going to be quite close, but I think advantage R... leaning Republican on the Kansas side.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Seats Most Likely to Flip1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
“So I'm ranking the 10 governorships that I think is in order of most likely to flip, the least likely to flip... number one, most likely to flip, Iowa... Number two, Kansas... Number three on my list is Ohio... Number four on the list is Alaska... And number five on my list is Texas... Six, I have Georgia... Number seven on my list is Nevada... Oregon... Number nine on my list is Wisconsin... And then coming in at 10 is Florida.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The races in this take
every call on each- 2026 U.S. Senate election in KansasAdam Hamilton wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 Georgia gubernatorial electionKeisha Lance Bottoms wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 Iowa gubernatorial electionRob Sand wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 Arizona gubernatorial electionKatie Hobbs wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. House election in South Carolina's district 1Nancy Lacore wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 5John McGuire wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 Michigan gubernatorial electionJocelyn Benson wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial electionDavid Crowley wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 Alaska gubernatorial electionNot decided yetEvery call on it →
- 2026 Kansas gubernatorial electionNot decided yetEvery call on it →
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.