Chuck Todd#2 of 21 election pundits · Oct 14, 2026

Todd argues Republicans are in triage while Democrats expand the map, and lays out a ranked top-10 list of governorships most likely to flip, headed by Iowa and Kansas. They call Iowa's governorship for Democrats and Kansas's for Republicans, with the reverse in those states' Senate races, expects Democrats to take the Wisconsin governorship and Democrats to have the upper hand in Alaska, while predicting South Carolina's 1st and Virginia's 5th House districts stay Republican.

Said on air or in an interview · The Chuck ToddCastHear the original

4 of 6calls landed4 hits · 2 misses · 3 waiting

66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls

33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

8Races calledevery call on each below

#2Chuck Todd’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Chuck Todd said

I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican.

Chuck Todd, the lead quote

Where it was said: The Chuck ToddCast
The episode: Full Episode - Republicans In Triage Mode As The Map Gets Worse + Ranking Colleges By ROI Rather Than Prestige
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 14
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Race Winners	4	2	2
Seats Most Likely to Flip	0	0	1
All	4	2	3

How each call scored

9 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 1 seats most likely to flip — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

6 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners4 hits · 2 misses · 2 waitingShow ▸

Republican to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 5
“I think Virginia five probably stays Republican.”
John McGuire woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-house-va-05
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
probably stays Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
John McGuire
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 5
decided in the:
general
they said:
John McGuire
days before the vote when called:
20
difficulty:
1.03
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
“I'm bullish on Iowa Gov for Democrats because I'm bearish for Iowa Senate.”
Josh Turek woncalled Ashley Hinson
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-ia
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
bearish for Iowa Senate
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Josh Turek
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ashley Hinson
days before the vote when called:
20
difficulty:
1.03
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democratic to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
“I think both Iowa and Kansas, you would say, distinctly leans to the party to flip. Leaning Democratic on the Iowa side, leaning Republican on the Kansas side.”
Rob Sand woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.03 difficulty = +103 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-governor-ia
election year:
2026
skill:
103
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leaning Democratic on the Iowa side
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Rob Sand
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rob Sand
days before the vote when called:
20
difficulty:
1.03
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Hamilton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
“I'm bullish on Kansas Senate because I'm bearish on Kansas Gov for Democrats... And I think Hamilton is, you know, I think Marshall's unlikable enough and Hamilton's likable enough to be the comfortable lone Democrat.”
Adam Hamilton woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.03 difficulty = +103 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ks
election year:
2026
skill:
103
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
bullish on Kansas Senate
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Adam Hamilton
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Hamilton
days before the vote when called:
20
difficulty:
1.03
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
“I think if a battleground state in this environment, advantage Democrats... It's not what I see in Wisconsin. I don't think Tom Tiffany is unique enough to carve out his own identity to overcome what I think is just an environment that is not overcomable for Republicans right now in the Midwest.”
David Crowley woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-governor-wi
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
advantage Democrats
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
David Crowley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
David Crowley
days before the vote when called:
20
difficulty:
1.03
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. House election in South Carolina's district 1
“I think South Carolina one still probably stays Republican.”
Nancy Lacore woncalled Jenny Costa Honeycutt
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.03 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-house-sc-01
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
still probably stays Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Nancy Lacore
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. House election in South Carolina's district 1
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jenny Costa Honeycutt
days before the vote when called:
20
difficulty:
1.03
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election
“It does appear that the Democrats have the upper hand here... it does feel as if the Democratic candidate has the upper hand here.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election
“Leaning Democratic on the Iowa side, leaning Republican on the Kansas side. ... but I think advantage are.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Seats Most Likely to Flip1 waitingShow ▸

“So I'm ranking the 10 governorships that I think is in order of most likely to flip... number one, most likely to flip Iowa... Number two, Kansas... Number three on my list is Ohio... Number four on the list is Alaska... And number five on my list is Texas. ... Six, I have Georgia. ... Number seven on my list is Nevada. ... Oregon. ... Number nine on my list is Wisconsin. ... And then coming in at 10 is Florida.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

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