Chuck Todd#2 of 21 election pundits · Oct 21, 2026

Todd gives their updated ranking of the ten Senate seats most likely to flip (plus six "also receiving votes"), says they are confident Democrats net North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, calls Alaska a narrow Democratic favorite, and rates Iowa, South Carolina and Nebraska as slightly Republican. They also say they remain bullish on Democrats taking Senate control, expects Sununu to fall short in New Hampshire, expects the Republican to hold off the independent in Montana, and thinks Nevada's lone Republican House seat may flip.

Said on air or in an interview · The Chuck ToddCastHear the original

8 of 10calls landed8 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting

80Average accuracyout of 100, across 10 calls

30A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

10Races calledevery call on each below

#2Chuck Todd’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Chuck Todd said

I'm still pretty bullish on Democratic chances to take control of the Senate.

Chuck Todd, the lead quote

Where it was said: The Chuck ToddCast
The episode: Chuck’s Commentary - Corruption Might Be The Dems’ Best Closing Argument + The Most Disgusting Campaign Ad Of The Cycle
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 21
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Race Winners	7	2	1
Control of Congress	1	0	0
Seats Most Likely to Flip	0	0	1
All	8	2	2

How each call scored

12 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 1 control of congres and 1 seats most likely to flip — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

10 of 12 have settled so far, averaging 80 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners7 hits · 2 misses · 1 waitingShow ▸

Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
“But in New Hampshire's case, I think Sununu is going to come up short.”
Chris Pappas woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-nh
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Chris Pappas
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chris Pappas
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Cooper (Democrats) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
“I think the real question is, does Cooper's victory have coattails in North Carolina?... North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, I think, frankly, are in the lean already lean category.”
Roy Cooper woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.02 difficulty = +102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-nc
election year:
2026
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
lean
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Roy Cooper
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Roy Cooper
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Nevada's district 2
“It really looks like... Nevada's lone Republican congressional district might temporarily flip because of a bad, flawed nominee.”
Teresa Benitez-Thompson woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.02 difficulty = +102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-house-nv-02
election year:
2026
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Teresa Benitez-Thompson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. House election in Nevada's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Teresa Benitez-Thompson
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
“those are the three I'm most confident in for Democrats... I'm pretty confident they're going to net those three... North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, I think, frankly, are in the lean already lean category.”
James Talarico woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.02 difficulty = +102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-tx
election year:
2026
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
lean
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
James Talarico
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
James Talarico
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
the Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana
“In the Montana case, the independent just, there's just, there's too many people on the ballot for the independent to overtake the Republican in that one.”
Kurt Alme woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mt
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Kurt Alme
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kurt Alme
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
“those are the three I'm most confident in for Democrats... I'm pretty confident they're going to net those three... North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, I think, frankly, are in the lean already lean category.”
Sherrod Brown woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.02 difficulty = +102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-oh-special
election year:
2026
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
lean
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Sherrod Brown
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sherrod Brown
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
the GOP to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
“I just don't see the path yet for Osborne. I see the path to 48. I don't see the path to 50... Iowa, South Carolina, Nebraska's, you know, very close. But right now tilting to the GOP.”
Pete Ricketts woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ne
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilting to the GOP
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Pete Ricketts
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Pete Ricketts
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Lindsey Graham to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
“Darlene Graham, slightly favored over Annie Andrews.”
Annie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-sc
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
slightly favored
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Annie Andrews
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Darline Graham
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Ashley Hinson to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
“Ashley Hinson, slightly favored over Turek.”
Josh Turek woncalled Ashley Hinson
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.02 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-ia
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
slightly favored
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Josh Turek
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ashley Hinson
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska
“Let's start with Alaska. I think Democrats are the favorite here, but it's a narrow margin.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Control of Congress1 hitShow ▸

“I'm still pretty bullish on Democratic chances to take control of the Senate.”
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.02 difficulty = +102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
102
topic:
elections
in their words:
I'm still pretty bullish on Democratic chances to take control of the Senate
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

Seats Most Likely to Flip1 waitingShow ▸

“So we start with my top 10... number one is still number one. And that is North Carolina... Number two, Ohio... Number three on the list is Texas... Let's start with Alaska... they're in my number four slot. My number five slot is Maine... Number six, Kansas... last on my pure toss up list is Michigan... My final three in the top 10, eight, nine, and 10 are Iowa, South Carolina, and Nebraska... If we're playing the AP poll game here, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Idaho, Montana. That is my order of likelihood to flip.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

The races in this take

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More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.