Mike Murphy· Oct 22, 2024
Murphy says he has shifted off his earlier view that Trump would win if the election were held immediately, and now, forced to choose, he would predict Harris wins the presidency.
“And if you put a gun to my head and I couldn't wiggle away or get you to shoot Axelrod instead, I would predict her now.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Hacks On Tap · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
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- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“So a week ago, I said I thought the election held today was Trump... But my gut now is that she's gear shift. And if you put a gun to my head and I couldn't wiggle away or get you to shoot Axelrod instead, I would predict her now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
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