Mike Murphy· Oct 29, 2024
Murphy says his gut is that Trump has a ceiling and the late break goes to Harris, and that if forced to bet he would bet on her winning, though only narrowly in the electoral college. He also says she will certainly win the national popular vote.
“I think she's definitely gonna win the popular vote.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Hacks On Tap · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“And my gut is Trump has a ceiling, and it'll break to her... So if you... I had to bet, I'm to the point where I bet on her... It's the electoral college, of course. Yeah. But but only by a whisker.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- only by a whisker
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“I think she's definitely gonna win the popular vote.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- definitely gonna win the popular vote
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.