Mike Murphy· Sep 29, 2026
Murphy says a Democratic Senate takeover is more likely than not, and he would bet on Democrat Adam Hamilton beating Roger Marshall in Kansas and on Abdul El-Sayed beating Mike Rogers in Michigan, arguing Trump's drag outweighs El-Sayed's weaknesses.
“So, you know, if I had to bet money, I actually think Hamilton is gonna win, partially because Marshall's so weak.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Hacks On Tap · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlSep 29, 2026
“No. I don't think it's a done deal... I think it's more likely than not.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“if I had to bet money, I actually think Hamilton is gonna win, partially because Marshall's so weak”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“So I I would put money now on al Said for all his problems against Rogers... I think Trump is the stronger magnetic force, and net net, it'll be enough for him to win.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.