Nate Silver· Oct 31, 2024

A week before the 2024 election, he reported his own Silver Bulletin model as giving Harris a 45.3% chance in the electoral college — roughly a 55-45 edge for Trump — while making her a heavy favorite (71.4%) to win the national popular vote.

“It's basically fifty five forty five Trump or fifty four forty five with a small chance of a tie.”

said on air or in an interview · Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 31, 2024
“Kamala Harris has a forty five point three percent chance of winning the electoral college... It's basically fifty five forty five Trump or fifty four forty five with a small chance of a tie.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a forty five point three percent chance of winning the electoral college [for Harris]; basically fifty five forty five Trump
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2024
“and a seventy one point four percent probability of winning the popular vote”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a seventy one point four percent probability of winning the popular vote
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.