Nate Silver· Sep 25, 2026
Silver argued that despite a weaker New York Times poll, Abdul El-Sayed is still likely to win the Michigan Senate race, even while paying a few points of a progressive penalty.
“The poll is consistent with El-Sayed paying a progressive “tax” of a few points, but probably still winning.”
published in writing · The Intersection (Patrick Ruffini) · read the original →
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- Race WinnersSep 25, 2026
“In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed had led by 3.3 points in the FLIPR polling average prior to the NYT poll, so the poll should actually help him. The poll is consistent with El-Sayed paying a progressive “tax” of a few points, but probably still winning.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
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