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Writes at Tangle (newsletter)
Across 7 graded calls in 7 articles, Will Kaback scores 57.14% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 7 calls · one square per call
4hits57% of graded
3misses43%
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
7 graded calls in 7 articles, newest first.
“Now, I think Donald's will very, very likely win this race, and the latest polling gives him a solid edge.”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Will Kaback isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
“Donalds will very likely win this race (the latest polling gives him a solid edge )”
“"While Maine's Senate race is a true toss-up, I'd give Sen. Collins the edge. Collins's influential position in the Senate could be the deciding factor. Both candidates have their own challenges, but I think Jackson has more to overcome."”
“I think the polls showing the race as neck and neck are accurate, but I would give Collins the edge... Even though I see Collins as the favorite, Jackson still has a very realistic path to victory... my money would be on Susan Collins.”
“I think the polls showing the race as neck and neck are accurate, but I would give Collins the edge. I think of the Maine senator the same way Isaac thinks of Republicans in Texas: I expect she'll win until she doesn't... Even though I see Collins as the favorite, Jackson still has a very realistic path to victory.”
“I don't think the Trump administration is trying to derail Omar's chances of reelection — MN-05 is deep blue , and she's going to win.”
“I don't think the Trump administration is trying to derail Omar's chances of reelection — MN-05 is deep blue , and she's going to win.”