Skip to main content
MissedTakes
Menu

Will KabackOct 28, 2026

Kaback calls the Maine Senate race a true toss-up but says Susan Collins is the favorite to win a sixth term, citing their Appropriations Committee clout and history of surviving tough races despite a bad national environment for Republicans.

Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original

0Miss · out of 100
Troy Jackson wonWhat happenedcalled Susan Collins
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Will Kaback said

I think the polls showing the race as neck and neck are accurate, but I would give Collins the edge.
Our reading: Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
Where it was published
Tangle (newsletter)
The piece
The Maine Senate election.
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 28
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine

    What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2026-senate-me
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Troy Jackson
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Susan Collins
    days before the vote when called:
    5
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

The race in this take

every call on each
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.