Will KabackOct 14, 2026
Kaback argues the raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's home isn't aimed at their reelection chances because their Minneapolis district is overwhelmingly Democratic, and they state flatly that they will win reelection.
Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original
100Hit · out of 100
Ilhan Omar wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty
What Will Kaback said
MN-05 is deep blue , and she's going to win.
- Where it was published
- Tangle (newsletter)
- The piece
- The Ilhan Omar investigation.
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 14
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Ilhan Omar to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Minnesota's district 5
What happenedIlhan Omar woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-house-mn-05
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Ilhan Omar
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in Minnesota's district 5
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ilhan Omar
- days before the vote when called:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.