Will KabackOct 14, 2026
Kaback argues the raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's home is about messaging rather than their electoral prospects, saying their deep-blue Minneapolis district means they will win reelection.
Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original
100Hit · out of 100
Ilhan Omar wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty
What Will Kaback said
MN-05 is deep blue , and she's going to win.
- Where it was published
- Tangle (newsletter)
- The piece
- The DHS searches Ilhan Omar’s home.
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 14
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Ilhan Omar to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Minnesota's district 5
What happenedIlhan Omar woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-house-mn-05
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Ilhan Omar
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in Minnesota's district 5
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ilhan Omar
- days before the vote when called:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.