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Will KabackNov 3, 2026

Kaback predicts Republican Byron Donalds will win the Florida governor's race, though possibly by a narrower margin than expected.

Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original

100Hit · out of 100
Byron Donalds wonWhat happenedcalled, not yet certified
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Will Kaback said

Donalds will very likely win this race
Our reading: Byron Donalds (Republicans) to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election
Where it was published
Tangle (newsletter)
The piece
The 2026 midterms are here.
The original
Read the original
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Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 3
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Byron Donalds (Republicans) to win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election

    What happenedByron Donalds woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-governor-fl
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    in their words:
    very likely
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Byron Donalds
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 Florida gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Byron Donalds
    days before the vote when called:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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