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Will KabackNov 1, 2026

Kaback said that although Maine's Senate race is a genuine toss-up, they would give the edge to Republican incumbent Susan Collins over Democrat Troy Jackson, citing their influential Senate position.

Published in writing · Tangle (newsletter)Read the original

0Miss · out of 100
Troy Jackson wonWhat happenedcalled Susan Collins
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Will Kaback said

While Maine's Senate race is a true toss-up, I'd give Sen. Collins the edge.
Our reading: Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
Where it was published
Tangle (newsletter)
The piece
The Sunday — November 1
The original
Read the original
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Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 1
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine

    What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2026-senate-me
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    in their words:
    I'd give Sen. Collins the edge
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Troy Jackson
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Susan Collins
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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