2026 New York gubernatorial election
Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held
The ballot
- Bruce Blakeman (Republican)—
- Kathy Hochul (Democratic, incumbent)—
Beside the pundits
Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.
The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026
- Kathy Hochul96¢
- Bruce Blakeman5¢
A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.
The polls · VoteHub · 1 poll in 21 days · through September 20, 2026
- Kathy Hochul58.0%
- Bruce Blakeman39.0%
Kathy Hochul by 19.0 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.
The 12 most recent polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-09-17 – 2026-09-20 | 1026 LV | Kathy Hochul 58% · Bruce Blakeman 39% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (DEM) · for Education Reform Now Advocacy | 2026-08-19 – 2026-08-21 | 505 LV | Kathy Hochul 50% · Bruce Blakeman 34% |
| Siena University | 2026-08-03 – 2026-08-06 | 811 LV | Kathy Hochul 49% · Bruce Blakeman 39% |
| Red Oak Strategic (REP) · for Strong and Safe | 2026-07-07 – 2026-07-12 | 2000 RV | Kathy Hochul 47% · Bruce Blakeman 43% |
| co/efficient · for Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers | 2026-06-30 – 2026-07-02 | 1085 LV | Kathy Hochul 47% · Bruce Blakeman 41% |
| Siena College | 2025-06-23 – 2026-06-26 | 800 RV | Kathy Hochul 44% · Bruce Blakeman 19% |
| Siena University | 2026-06-17 – 2026-06-23 | 1120 RV | Kathy Hochul 52% · Bruce Blakeman 32% |
| Pollfinity | 2026-06-11 – 2026-06-14 | 229 LV | Kathy Hochul 50% · Bruce Blakeman 40% |
| Siena University | 2026-04-27 – 2026-04-30 | 806 RV | Kathy Hochul 49% · Bruce Blakeman 33% |
| Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies | 2026-03-24 – 2026-03-26 | 500 RV | Kathy Hochul 55% · Bruce Blakeman 40% |
| Siena College | 2026-03-23 – 2026-03-26 | 804 RV | Kathy Hochul 47% · Bruce Blakeman 34% |
| Siena College | 2026-02-23 – 2026-02-26 | 805 RV | Kathy Hochul 51% · Bruce Blakeman 31% |
What the field called
Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.
- Kathy Hochul2 picks
Every claim about this race (2)
Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.
Chuck Todd: Kathy Hochul wins NY governorship (2026)
Race Winners · Sep 28, 2026 · 2026 New York gubernatorial election · the take
PendingChuck Todd: Kathy Hochul wins NY governorship (2026)
Race Winners · Sep 28, 2026 · 2026 New York gubernatorial election · the take
Pending