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Chris Simms#58 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 15, 2026

They sided with Seattle in the Thursday night game against Denver, predicting a low-scoring 20-16 Seahawks win with Seattle's defense choking out a Broncos offense they consider unimpressive.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original

48Close · out of 100
Broncos 17–14What happenedcalled Seahawks by 4 · lost by 3
93.6A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
47.62This callout of 100
#58Chris Simms’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Simms said

I'm gonna take Seattle. I'll give you a score. I'm gonna say 20 to 16.
Our reading: Seattle Seahawks 20 — Denver 16
The episode
John Lynch on 49ers injuries; Seahawks Broncos TNF pick
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidOct 15
  2. PlayedOct 15
  3. GradedOct 16

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 93.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 20 — Denver 16

    What happenedBroncos 17–14called Seahawks by 4 · lost by 3
    47.62Close · naive 93.6
    47.62this call93.6a naive guess−45.98worse than naive1.72difficulty−79.09skill

    Closing line (Oct 15): Seahawks by 2.5, total 40.5 · this 20–16 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and fewer points (36).

    How this was scored
    score:
    14-17
    skill:
    −79.09
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    47.62
    baseline:
    93.6
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.31
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?

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