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Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 15, 2026

Dubin picks the Seahawks to win 24-16 at Denver and takes the Packers to beat the Cowboys 33-28.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
63.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
85.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I'm taking Green Bay to win here.
Jared Dubin, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Pick Six: Seahawks-Broncos predictions for Thursday night, plus NFL Week 6 picks and QB rankings
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidOct 15
  2. PlayedOct 15–18
  3. GradedOct 16–19
  1. 1Green Bay Packers 33 — Cowboys 28“Jared Dubin — Packers (-1.5) 33-28 over Cowboys.”
  2. 2Seattle Seahawks 24 — Broncos 16“Jared Dubin's pick: Seahawks 24-16 over Broncos”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Green Bay Packers 33 — Cowboys 281Score PredictionsPackers 23–1388.176.55+19.85
Seattle Seahawks 24 — Broncos 162Score PredictionsBroncos 17–1438.193.6−95.47
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled63.185.1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 63.1 out of 100, against 85.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers 33 — Cowboys 28

    What happenedPackers 23–13called Packers by 5 · won by 10
    88.1Hit · naive 76.55
    88.1this call76.55a naive guess11.55better than naive1.72difficulty+19.85skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5, total 53.5 · this 33–28 calls a Packers win (by 5; the line gave the Packers 49%) and more points (61). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-23
    skill:
    19.85
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    76.55
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.15
    predicted margin:
    5
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 24 — Broncos 16

    What happenedBroncos 17–14called Seahawks by 8 · lost by 3
    38.1Miss · naive 93.6
    38.1this call93.6a naive guess−55.5worse than naive1.72difficulty−95.47skill

    Closing line (Oct 15): Seahawks by 2.5, total 40.5 · this 24–16 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 8) and fewer points (40).

    How this was scored
    score:
    14-17
    skill:
    −95.47
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    38.1
    baseline:
    93.6
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.31
    predicted margin:
    8
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    63.1naive 85.1

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