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Danny Parkins#75 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 17, 2026

Parkins picks the Bills to win in Denver, the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, the Patriots to beat the Texans by more than three, and the Bears to beat the Rams.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
#75Danny Parkins’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Danny Parkins said

Josh Allen will figure out a way to win Bills plus one and a half.
Our reading: Buffalo Bills to beat Denver
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
Divisional Round preview, Most to Gain & Lose, Mahomes comeback, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidJan 16
  2. GradedAug 13

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Denver

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
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