Andrew WalworthNov 3, 2026

Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control.

Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original

5 of 10calls landed5 hits · 5 misses · 1 waiting

50Average accuracyout of 100, across 10 calls

30A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

10Races calledevery call on each below

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Andrew Walworth said

I actually think Talarico wins this... this is the year I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that, Texas goes blue.

Andrew Walworth, the lead quote

Where it was said: RealClearPolitics Podcast
The episode: Final Midterm Predictions
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidNov 3
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Race Winners	5	4	1
Control of Congress	0	1	0
All	5	5	1

How each call scored

11 checkable claims — 10 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

10 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners5 hits · 4 misses · 1 waitingShow ▸

the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
“I think Nebraska is just... It's a red state, and it's gonna stay red... they'll keep Nebraska red.”
Pete Ricketts woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ne
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Pete Ricketts
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Pete Ricketts
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Darlene Graham to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
“Yeah. I actually agree. I think Darlene Graham pulls it off”
Annie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-sc
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Annie Andrews
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Darline Graham
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
“Yeah. I wanna switch... I'll say Kansas stays blue. [Bevan: "No. You mean turns blue."]”
Adam Hamilton woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ks
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Adam Hamilton
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Hamilton
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Sherrod Brown to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
“Yeah. I'm with Carl on that. I think Sherrod Brown's gonna take Ohio.”
Sherrod Brown woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-oh-special
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Sherrod Brown
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sherrod Brown
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
“I actually think Talarico wins this. I just think he's got the momentum.”
James Talarico woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-tx
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
James Talarico
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
James Talarico
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Mike Rogers to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
“Oh, I actually think, I'm gonna put that one down for the red team. I think Mike Rogers has actually run a very interesting race.”
Abdul El-Sayed woncalled Mike Rogers
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1 difficulty = −100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-mi
election year:
2026
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Abdul El-Sayed
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Rogers
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Ashley Hinson to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
“I I think I think, Henson pulls it out again.”
Josh Turek woncalled Ashley Hinson
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-ia
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Josh Turek
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ashley Hinson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
“Yeah. I'm with Tom and Spencer on this. I think she wins.”
Troy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-me
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Troy Jackson
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
decided in the:
general
they said:
Susan Collins
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
the democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
“I think, I think the democrats win. It's too too blue a state.”
Peggy Flanagan woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mn
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Peggy Flanagan
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
decided in the:
general
they said:
Peggy Flanagan
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska
“What do you think about Alaska? And I think it actually stays red. I think that hurts her.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Control of Congress1 missShow ▸

“So a net of Democrats plus three, which means Republicans would keep control of the senate. Fifty fifty. Right? Yeah. Fifty fifty with JD Vance breaking the ties.”
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
in their words:
Fifty fifty with JD Vance breaking the ties
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

The races in this take

every call on each

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.