Tom Bevan#5 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026

Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats.

Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original

8 of 12calls landed8 hits · 4 misses · 3 waiting

66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 12 calls

25A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

12Races calledevery call on each below

#5Tom Bevan’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Tom Bevan said

which means Democrats would take the senate 51 to 49

Tom Bevan, the lead quote

Where it was said: RealClearPolitics Podcast
The episode: Final Midterm Predictions
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidNov 3
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Race Winners	7	4	1
Control of Congress	1	0	0
Seat Counts	0	0	2
All	8	4	3

How each call scored

15 checkable claims — 12 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

12 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners7 hits · 4 misses · 1 waitingShow ▸

the Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
“So I give that one to the Republicans too.”
Annie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-sc
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Annie Andrews
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Darline Graham
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
“I just think this is one that that is gonna... He's gonna get swept away by the the blue wave that's coming... I have Democrats winning, Alaska, Kansas, Texas.”
Adam Hamilton woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ks
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Adam Hamilton
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Hamilton
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
“I have Democrats winning, Alaska, Kansas, Texas. And obviously, everybody's has North Carolina, so that's the that's the one.”
Roy Cooper woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-nc
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Roy Cooper
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Roy Cooper
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Ashley Hinson to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
“But I just think Ashley Hinson is gonna pull this one out... So I I have this one going Republican.”
Josh Turek woncalled Ashley Hinson
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-ia
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Josh Turek
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ashley Hinson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
the Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
“However, Ohio is one of those states that really closes, you know. And so I I have the Republican winning this one”
Sherrod Brown woncalled Jon Husted
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-oh-special
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Sherrod Brown
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jon Husted
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Ricketts (Republicans) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
“Ricketts is an incumbent. He's in good standing... So I think he'll withstand the national environment... But I think Republicans will pull this one out.”
Pete Ricketts woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-ne
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Pete Ricketts
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Pete Ricketts
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
“I'm gonna go with Spencer on this. I think I think Susan Collins... I say she ekes it out.”
Troy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-me
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Troy Jackson
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
decided in the:
general
they said:
Susan Collins
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
“yeah, I think I think Tallarico might pull this off”
James Talarico woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-tx
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
James Talarico
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
James Talarico
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
the Dems to win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
“I I definitely think the Dems are gonna win the governor's race”
Rob Sand woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-governor-ia
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Rob Sand
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 Iowa gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rob Sand
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Peggy Flanagan to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
“I think Peggy Peggy Flanagan is a very flawed candidate... I just don't see it happening.”
Peggy Flanagan woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mn
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Peggy Flanagan
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
decided in the:
general
they said:
Peggy Flanagan
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
El Sayed to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
“I think in Michigan, again, I think all the polls favor El Sayed at this point... So I think he wins that race.”
Abdul El-Sayed woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-mi
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Abdul El-Sayed
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Abdul El-Sayed
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Peltola to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska
“I also think, Petola is gonna pull this out.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Control of Congress1 hitShow ▸

“which means Democrats would take the senate 51 to 49”
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

Seat Counts2 waitingShow ▸

“which means Democrats would take the senate 51 to 49”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
“our RealClearPolitics map is where it Dems plus 26. That seems about right to me.”
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

The races in this take

every call on each

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More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.