Carl Cannon#7 of 21 election pundits · Nov 3, 2026
Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats.
Said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics PodcastHear the original
What Carl Cannon said
I just don't know that Susan Collins can defy gravity yet again.
- Where it was said
- RealClearPolitics Podcast
- The episode
- Final Midterm Predictions
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 3
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race Winners | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Seat Counts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How each call scored
11 checkable claims — 10 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
9 of 11 have settled so far, averaging 77.8 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Race Winners7 hits · 2 misses · 1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Sherrod Brown to win the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
“I think he's gonna drag down that ticket, and Sherrod Brown will will come back to Washington.”
Sherrod Brown woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-oh-special
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Sherrod Brown
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Sherrod Brown
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Darlene Graham Nardona to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
“I don't think Darlene Graham Nardona is a very good candidate at all. But I think that state is probably too Republican for her to blow it.”
Annie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-sc
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Annie Andrews
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Darline Graham
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Adam Hamilton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
“I've been with Adam Hamilton before anybody heard his name. I I can't change now.”
Adam Hamilton woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-ks
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Adam Hamilton
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Adam Hamilton
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
El Sayed to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
“Carl? Yeah. Me too. [following Bevan's "So I think he wins that race" about El Sayed]”
Abdul El-Sayed woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-mi
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Abdul El-Sayed
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Abdul El-Sayed
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Josh Turek to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
“I think in the end, Josh Turek wins.”
Josh Turek woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-ia
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Josh Turek
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Josh Turek
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Talarico to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
“I think it's gonna be razor thin, but I think Taller Rico pulls it out.”
James Talarico woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- James Talarico
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- James Talarico
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Michelle Tafoya to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
“Okay. I'm gonna take Tafoya... I just like to pick one upset, and this is the one I'm picking.”
Peggy Flanagan woncalled Michele Tafoya0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1 difficulty = −100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-mn
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- −100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Peggy Flanagan
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Michele Tafoya
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Ricketts (the Republicans) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
“I think I think, I think the Republicans just eat that out... And I I... The Ricketts holds on.”
Pete Ricketts woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-ne
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Pete Ricketts
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Pete Ricketts
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Troy Jackson (the Democrats) to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
“I just don't know that Susan Collins can defy gravity yet again... So you're going with the Democrats for that. Yeah. So Troy Jackson.”
Troy Jackson woncalled, not yet certified100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-me
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Troy Jackson
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Troy Jackson
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Peltola to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska
“Alright. I'll flip a coin and say, Petola pulls it out.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Seat Counts1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
“I think it's gonna be... I think it's... I think it'll be more than I think it'll be more than 30.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The races in this take
every call on each- 2026 U.S. Senate special election in OhioSherrod Brown wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in South CarolinaAnnie Andrews wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in KansasAdam Hamilton wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in MichiganAbdul El-Sayed wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in IowaJosh Turek wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in TexasJames Talarico wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in NebraskaPete Ricketts wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in MaineTroy Jackson wonEvery call on it →
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in AlaskaNot decided yetEvery call on it →
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Clay Travis · Race Winners · Hit 100
Clay Travis predicted a Republican sweep in Tennessee — Blackburn for governor, Hagerty for Senate and all nine House seats — said they were optimistic Republicans would flip the Michigan Senate seat from Democrats, and expected the Republican to win the New Hampshire governor's race.