Bucky Brooks· Feb 16, 2026
In the joint top-10 mock, Brooks gave the Jets David Bailey at No. 2, Tennessee Arvell Reese at No. 4, Cleveland Spencer Fano at No. 6, New Orleans running back Jeremiah Love at No. 8 and Cincinnati safety Caleb Downs at No. 10.
“Welcome to Gotham. David Bailey is a jet.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 92 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick2They said
2What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyNew York JetsFeb 16, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“I'm gonna give the Jets David Bailey from Texas Tech. I'm gonna give them a pass rusher... David Bailey is a jet.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85 against a shuffle’s 50+35 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveNew Orleans SaintsFeb 16, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8
“you are up with New Orleans... I think Jeremiah Love will be the perfect fit in this situation.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsCincinnati BengalsFeb 16, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
“Caleb Downs is the pick for the Cincinnati Bengals.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseTennessee TitansFeb 16, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 4
“That's RVL Reese... I'm gonna go with Rvill Reese being a guy that the Tennessee Titans can build around.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoCleveland BrownsFeb 16, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 6
“I'm gonna take Spenser for No with the Citys for the Cleveland Browns.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 70 against a shuffle’s 50+20 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 74Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Bryan DeArdoScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 50He picks the Bengals to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a low-scoring, defensive game, arguing Pittsburgh's struggling offense can't break through against Cincinnati's strong defense.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.