Nick Shook#67 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 23, 2025
In a 20-pick draft of the best running backs for 2025, Nick Shook used their ten selections (overall picks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19) on Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, De'Von Achane and David Montgomery. They also predicted Derrick Henry would top 1,000 rushing yards again as Baltimore's bell cow.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Shook said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'm going with sa Kwan Barkley, simple as that.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Top 20 NFL Running Backs
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJun 23, 2025
- GradedAug 7, 2026
- 1Derrick Henry to be 1st on the depth chart“He's going to go over one thousand yards, and it's going to be a bell cow back for this team.”
- 2Derrick Henry to record 1,000 rushing yards“He's going to go over one thousand yards, and it's going to be a bell cow back for this team.”
- 3Top Player Lists“Nick Shook's picks in the running back draft: 1st Saquon Barkley, 3rd Derrick Henry, 5th Josh Jacobs, 7th Christian McCaffrey, 9th James Cook, 11th Jonathan Taylor, 13th Alvin Kamara, 15th Joe Mixon, 17th De'Von Achane, 19th David Montgomery.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry to be 1st on the depth chart1 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Derrick Henry to record 1,000 rushing yards2 | Player Season Numbers | 1,595 | 25.39 | 44.19 | −37.59 | |
| “Nick Shook's picks in the running back draft: 1st Saquon…”3 | Top Player Lists | — | 60 | 50 | +20 | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled | 61.8 | 64.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 1 depth chart call, 1 player season number and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 61.8 out of 100, against 64.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
1Depth Chart CallsDerrick HenryBaltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Player Season NumbersDerrick HenryBaltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry to record 1,000 rushing yards
What happened1,595called 1,00025.39Miss · naive 44.1925.39this call−44.19a naive guess=−18.8worse than naive×2difficulty=−37.59skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 1149.89
- skill:
- −37.59
- what happened:
- 1595
- player:
- Derrick Henry
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 25.39
- baseline:
- 44.19
- they said:
- 1000
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 1921
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 378.78
- zero at percent out:
- 50
“Nick Shook's picks in the running back draft: 1st Saquon Barkley, 3rd Derrick Henry, 5th Josh Jacobs, 7th Christian McCaffrey, 9th James Cook, 11th Jonathan Taylor, 13th Alvin Kamara, 15th Joe Mixon, 17th De'Von Achane, 19th David Montgomery.”
VerdictClose60Close · naive 5060this call−50a naive guess=10better than naive×2difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- placed:
- 9
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 10
- accuracy:
- 60
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- RB 9: 60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
61.8naive 64.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. They also expect Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter.