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John Breech· Nov 5, 2026

Breech picks the Jaguars to blow out the quarterback-depleted Ravens on Thursday night, and in Week 9 takes the Bengals to outlast the Falcons in a Madrid shootout. He also expects Jacoby Brissett to be a Raven within 48 hours and to make his first Baltimore start in Week 11.

“John Breech's pick: Jaguars 30-13 over Ravens”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 score predictions, 1 availability call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 84.9 out of 100, against 3.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsNov 5, 2026

    Cincinnati Bengals 34 — Falcons 30

    “John Breech — Bengals (-3) 34-30 over Falcons... the Bengals have Joe Burrow, who will find a way to will his team to a win in a shootout.”

    Close · 69Scored 69.05a naive guess scored 10.09+91.98 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    34-17
    skill:
    91.98
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    69.05
    baseline:
    10.09
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    10
    naive home margin:
    0.24
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Nov 8): Bengals by 3, total 52.5 · this 34–30 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 4) and more points (64). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

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  • Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsNov 5, 2026

    Jacksonville Jaguars 30 — Ravens 13

    “John Breech's pick: Jaguars 30-13 over Ravens”

    Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 0+133.71 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    33-10
    skill:
    133.71
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    85.71
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    23
    weeks left when called:
    10
    naive home margin:
    0.38
    predicted margin:
    17

    Closing line (Nov 5): Jaguars by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 30–13 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 17) and more points (43).

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  • Trade and Signing CallsJacoby BrissettBaltimore RavensNov 5, 2026

    Jacoby Brissett to move to Baltimore Ravens

    “The only thing we do know is that Brissett will be a Raven at some point in the next 48 hours”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    156
    player:
    Jacoby Brissett
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    BAL
    was with:
    ARI
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    reported:
    traded → BAL (from ARI)
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    1.56
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    10

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  • Availability CallsJacoby BrissettBaltimore RavensNov 5, 2026

    “his first start with the team will likely come in Week 11 against the Chargers”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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