John Middlekauff· Mar 2, 2026
After the NFL Combine, Middlekauff predicted Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall, that Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love won't fall out of the top 10 (as high as No. 4 to the Giants, no further than the Saints at No. 8), plus top-10/top-20 landing spots for Caleb Downs, Carnell Tate and Oregon's tight end. He also forecast quarterback movement: Tua and Kyler Murray being cut, Kyler as a backup, someone trading for Tyson Bagent, and the Saints becoming a sleeper playoff team if they land Love.
“He's not sniffing falling out of the top ten.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 3 trade and signing calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 94.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsMar 2, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked “lock top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
“Caleb Downs I didn't even think did that much at the combine. Don't blame him, He's a lock top ten pick”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- lock top ten pick (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateMar 2, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked “top twenty” (picks 1–20)
“And Carnel Tate same thing. He's gonna go in the top twenty.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top twenty (picks 1–20)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaMar 2, 2026
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“The only thing we know for certain is for Mendoza is going number one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveMar 2, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “not sniffing falling out of the top ten; goes as high as four with the Giants, farthest fall would be the Saints at eight” (picks 1–10)
“So I think the I think Jeremiah lovkick goes high as four with the Titans, I mean the Giants... I think the farthest key word of quote unquote fall would be the Saints at eight... he's not sniffing falling out of the of the top ten.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- not sniffing falling out of the top ten; goes as high as four with the Giants, farthest fall would be the Saints at eight (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksKenyon SadiqMar 2, 2026
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “top ten” (picks 1–10)
“Sadik. I mean that's I don't know if he's gonna go top five, but he's going in the top ten.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- top ten (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Trade and Signing CallsTua TagovailoaMar 2, 2026
Tua Tagovailoa to move
“All signs point to a tongue by low A getting cut and if they wanted to take the entire hit right now'd be it close to one hundred million dollars.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Depth Chart CallsKyler MurrayMar 2, 2026
Kyler Murray to be 2nd on the depth chart
“Now Kyler's going to get a spot, but my guess would be he's got to be a backup somewhere”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Surprise Team CallsNew Orleans SaintsMar 2, 2026
New Orleans Saints to beat expectations
“If they get Jeremiah Love in the in the draft, they would be a sleeper playoff team next year the New Orleans Saints.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsTyson BagentMar 2, 2026
Tyson Bagent to move
“I think someone is going to trade for Tyson. He's under a cheap contract. Even if you got to give a fourth round pick”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsKyler MurrayMar 2, 2026
Kyler Murray to move
“Kyler Murray, he's gonna be cut as well.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
- Dan BeyerGame Outcome Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0For his Week 3 survivor pick, he took the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, saying he doesn't see Las Vegas staying unbeaten.
- Darrion GrayScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 45Predicted the Saints beat the Raiders 27-17 at home.
- John HendricksScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 43Predicted a lower-scoring Saints win over the Raiders, 24-19, with the defense carrying them.
- Lance MooreScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Called for a Saints victory over the Raiders by a score of 27-20.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.